The “election season” has begun in the region and is set to dominate the political discourse for the next five months. As these elections coincide with the half way mark of the UPA government at the Centre, many poll analysts and psephologists would see the results as a sort of mid-term referendum on the performance of the Congress-led UPA government apart from obviously that of the state governments concerned.
SGPC elections across the region in
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) was expected to win and it performed remarkably well in the SGPC polls – one of its best performances in recent times. It won 157 seats, improving on its past performance and vanquishing the motley opposition. But what has worried the SAD poll managers is the reduction in the margin of victory. While the number of seats which the party got is indeed impressive, the reduced margin has increased the worry lines of the SAD workers and leaders and sent them scurrying for cover.
Publicly Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and Deputy CM and SAD President Sukhbir Badal are gloating on the performance but as veterans of the game, they also know that the real battle lies ahead and the SGPC polls cannot be held as the barometer of public mood for the Assembly polls. Moreover, the votes which the SAD got in the polls are only a fraction of the total votes for the assembly polls. It cannot be even called a representative sample size for a pollster to predict the polls as only the Sikh voters were enrolled, not the entire population. But the results obviously worried the Congress. Even after propping up the Panthic Morcha through supporters like Paramjit Singh Sarna of the DSGMC and Surjit Singh Barnala of SAD (Longowal), it failed to cut ice with the Sikh voters ahead of the Assembly polls. Had the Panthic Morcha won even a dozen seats, Congress would have been much happier.
As the din of the SGPC polls is yet to die down, the challenge of the Hisar bye-election in Haryana stares the main political parties in their face. It is the first Lok Sabha bye-election after the Anna Hazare storm and it is hardly surprising to find that the parties contesting the polls have made corruption the main issue. “Who is more corrupt?” seems to be the tagline as all the three main contenders in the fray are charging each other of indulging in corruption.
The results of Hisar would throw open a wide range of possibilities for the parties. While a victory for the Congress would cement the position of Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a loss would further embolden the detractors of the CM within the party. More so, when the party candidate Jai Prakash is a personal choice of Hooda and he has left no stone unturned to ensure that nothing goes wrong in the polls.
For the Indian National Lok Dal, the implications could be profound. The second most important leader in the party after his father O P Chautala, Ajay Chautala is contesting the polls – the third generation of Chaudhary Devi Lal. Battling corruption cases in a
The third major player here, Kuldeep Bishnoi, is fighting a battle for political survival. Having lost five of his MLAs to Congress after the 2009 assembly polls, this is the first election which he is fighting without the larger than life figure of his father. If Bishnoi wins, it could well mean that the legacy of Bhajan Lal has been passed on to his son. As his party HJC is in a long-term alliance with the BJP, a loss could well mean that the non-Jat voters which the party is eyeing, have rejected them and it will take time and effort to build the alliance.
Sandwiched between Hisar bye-polls and the
But undoubtedly, the biggest battle of the “electoral season” would be the February 2012 Assembly polls in
But what has given hope to the Akalis is the fact that the party’s development card has found many takers and the announcement spree of the government has forced people to take notice. The SGPC elections also set into motion the electoral machine of the party and made it aware about the areas to concentrate on. Moreover, the Akalis think that if the BJP governments of Raman Singh in Chhatisgarh and Shivraj Singh Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh and Nitish Kumar’s JDU-BJP government in
Congress, nevertheless, is over confident. It is taking the trend in its stride and leaders claim that the Akalis cannot be voted to power come what may. PCC President and contender for Chief Ministership Captain Amarinder Singh is so confident that he already has drawn a list of what the party will do after coming to power.
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