Veto power of Rahul Gandhi

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA 

Who has a bigger stature in Congress and the Government — Prime Minister Manmohan Singh or Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi? The worst kept secret is now out. The entire world now knows that Gandhi not only has the veto power in the party but also the Government.

What the entire world now also knows for sure is that the first family of the Congress always had this power but they made everyone believe that executive power had been delegated to the Prime Minister. The façade that executive leadership vests with the Prime Minister had been assiduously built for public consumption in the last almost 10 years. But the mask fell down in one blow as Rahul dashed to the Press Club of India in New Delhi in a pre planned move to disassociate himself from the Ordinance on convicted leaders.

Senior leaders and those who know the functioning of the Congress knew that the first family always had veto power pertaining to anything in Government and the party. After party Chief Sonia Gandhi started keeping unwell, it was left to Rahul to exercise this veto power first in the formation of the Cabinet some time ago, then a reshuffle in the organisation and now to derail the Ordinance. He used it to great effect to make Manmohan Singh and his Cabinet colleagues realise that he calls the shots not the Cabinet.

Even if the Prime Minister sticks to the chair and does not resign after this, he has been shown his place and told in no uncertain terms as to who is the boss. Whatever Rahul or Sonia Gandhi tell the PM in their letters and phone calls and try to console him after public humiliation, the message has gone.  In the remaining term, he will have to seek the advice of Rahul for anything and everything he does because another round of humiliation or reprimand would severely erode whatever little credibility he has as a Prime Minister.

But whatever the critics of Rahul and even the status quoists in his own party say, for the first time the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty has taken a pro active stand ever since he came into politics. For the first time, Gandhi respected public opinion on an issue of wide importance. So far, his entire politics was based on NGO style operation-championing the cause of dalit one day, tribal the other and without being serious to either of the two. Rahul has not spoken anything on the deteriorating economy, international relations, political issues facing the country, on Telengana or even the victory of Indian cricket team in a bilateral series.

For that matter, after becoming Vice President of the party when a bigger role was expected, he has not spoken anything of significance which the voters expect from the prime ministerial candidate of Congress. His main competitor Narendra Modi speaks on everything under the sun every other day and the entire world knows what is good or bad about him. Now that Rahul has made a beginning by terming the Ordinance as a “nonsense” that “deserved to be torn up and thrown out”, people would expect more from the leader who has practically been anointed as the prime ministerial candidate by Congress. 

BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi may have lashed out at Rahul on Sunday in his rally in New Delhi for undermining the authority of the Prime Minister but remember as this was the first time the Congress Vice President took a stand on an issue, he should be excused. The authority of the Prime Minister in any case was always undermined in the Congress regime of this century where loyalty and lack of political base was the criteria for the top job of the country.  A hue and cry is being made as this was the first time people saw the undermining of the democratic institutions-PM and the Cabinet-taking place in public domain. 

However, Gandhi’s political immaturity is apparent when he chose the wrong place and time to debunk the Ordinance as “nonsense”. He could have barged into the meeting of the Congress Core Group which took the decision to bring in an Ordinance to help the convicted leaders to help the Government. He could have picked up the telephone and called the Prime Minister or the Law Minister and told them what a nonsense it was. But alas he chose a press conference for it.

What has happened now is that the entire system—Congress as well as the Government is demoralised.  They do not know where to hide their face. As this has come in the run up to the 2014 polls, the embarrassment is all the more serious. Ask Cabinet Ministers Kapil Sibal, P Chidambaram and Manish Tewari along with a battery of spokespersons the party has about the latest stand of Rahul and all they will offer now is a sheepish smile. All of them defended the Ordinance before Rahul voiced his opinion on it.

In fact, when Congress media in-charge Ajay Maken was defending the Ordinance, Rahul barged in and termed it “nonsense”. No mediaperson would now believe Maken when he speaks on party’s stand on various issues and they will invariably ask him whether this was the line of Rahul or not. Similarly, whenever the Cabinet passes a Bill or approves an Ordinance, people would invariably ask whether it has the stamp of Rahul or not. They will also tell the Government, “be serious, first get Rahul’s approval and only then bring an Ordinance or a Law”.

My point is different. When you are all powerful and have the veto power not only in Congress but the Government as well, why pretend to be an outsider? Why behave like a kid who does not want to shoulder responsibility? Why not remove Manmohan Singh straight away and become the Prime Minister so that the next General Elections are fought under your leadership?

These are the questions which Rahul should consider in the next couple of weeks as the battle for 2014 is getting hot. (September 30, 2013)

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/veto-power-of-rahul-gandhi.html

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/veto-power-of--rahul-gandhi.html

Economics versus Politics: Politics wins

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Politics and Economics are intrinsically linked in our country and one affects the other. That perhaps explains why Indian economy is going downhill like a vehicle whose brakes have failed. The driver of such a vehicle has no control on the machine even if he tries. Something similar is happening to the economy and the driver (Government) has lost all control on it and it is a free fall.

National Food Security Bill was passed by the Lok Sabha and the poor of the country who are a staggering two thirds of the population would get coarse crops, wheat and rice for Rs 1, Rs 2 and Rs 3 per kg. I do not have any objection to such populist schemes provided you have resources and the economy is robust with all indicators in the positive. But the point is has the Government got enough resources to fund the scheme or has it ever thought of the implications such schemes entail in the long term. For me, the case of the Government is like that of a poor person who does not know from where his next meal would come but has offered someone else a wholesome meal.

Then has anyone thought that when one can get a meal practically for free under the Food Security Bill, will there be any incentive left to work and contribute to national growth. You already have NREGA or assured income per year where no productive work is done, except digging ponds and filling them up but wages are paid from the tax payer”s money. Now, you have food security and all incentive to work for your bread and rice is gone. You need not do anything, simply sit at home most of the time, get NREGA wages for 100 days or 150 days in a year depending on the State you live in and go to the nearby PDS or earmarked shop to purchase coarse crop, wheat or rice for Rs 1, Rs 2 and Rs 3 per kg. Will the nation benefit from such a scheme in the long run when two thirds of the population would live in the earnings of the one third perpetually?

I can understand the logic and argument of both the ruling party and the Opposition if such schemes are meant only for physically challenged people, those suffering from some ailment or those above 60 years of age. The State should have a mechanism in place for them. But that is not the case here.  To me, a blanket Act without any checks and balances is perhaps the greatest flaw of this legislation. Almost 80 crore people will get benefits with the proposed law though its efficacy will be known only months after it is fully implemented.

With such schemes, you only ensure that no one has any incentive left for work. The able bodied people, who can work for the growth of the country and for strengthening its economy, have the lucrative option of not doing anything except while away their time. Under several Government schemes, poor get free houses; they get assured employment under NREGA without working, free treatment and medicines in government hospitals and now free food. What would be next? Twenty meters of clothes each year for all those who qualify under the Right to Food Act!

NREGA perhaps explains the acute shortage of labour all over the country in small manufacturing units and organised agriculture. Even if the workers are paid Rs 10,000 a month, they prefer not to work in a far away city as without working and staying at home, the Government largesse would help their primary concern of roti and rice.

Recently, I went to Bihar and found that the State which once had surplus labour and where one could easily find workers for agricultural fields now has an acute shortage. It is not that the population of the State is declining, but Government schemes, both of the Centre and the State, have ensured that sitting in the thatched hut and doing nothing, is more in vogue than looking for a job, working in the fields and raising the standards of the family.

When in Bihar, I found that the Nitish Kumar Government even has a scheme which offers radio sets free of cost to a section of the people, depending on their caste. This scheme defied all logic except the fact that when you need not work and get food, keep listening to songs on radio to pass your time. I would not be surprised if the scheme is upgraded by the Bihar Government and the BPL families get a colour TV set with a satellite connection and also a battery to watch TV as there is hardly any electricity in rural Bihar.

Simple economics tells you that first you have to generate income and only then it can be distributed. By all means give to the have-nots but for that first you have to generate resources and income. If you don”t have income, how can you give? Country”s first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released on Friday by the government reported a fall in economic growth for the April-June quarter of the current year at 4.4 per cent as against 5.4 per cent in the same quarter in the previous fiscal. There is not a single sector which is buoyant. Manufacturing and mining sectors are staring at negative growth for the last several months. There is recession in all industries. Employment figures are falling. The Rupee is sinking, there is inflation all around, prices of petroleum products are increasing almost every fortnight, investments are not coming and the Prime Minister has thrown his hands in despair. For, how long can you milk the service classes and the industries with a host of taxes? Rob Peter to pay Paul! Or in an Indian context rob Anil to pay Sunil!

There is a parallel to what is happening today to the late 1980s when the Soviet Union collapsed. The collapse of the once mighty Soviet Union was more due to economics of a communist regime where everything from food to Vodka was supposed to be free of cost and you got a subsistence allowance even when you did not work.  Soviet Union was offering schemes similar to Food Security and NREGA though the names were obviously different. You could get your bread and butter there without working and this cannot be sustained forever. I am not saying the situation in the country is that bad but history teaches us lessons and we should be eager students to learn from the mistakes which others did. Do not try to import the communist economic model which failed miserably in Soviet Union and several other countries.

Now, you have another so called “game changer”- the Land Acquisition Bill. I don”t know how many industries would come forward to set up shop in the country when they won”t be able to even purchase land from the farmers. Even if they try, the lands would be so expensive that they will prefer to shift to China, Bangladesh or some other country in Africa and Latin America where they do not have the Land Acquisition Act and can easily get the requisite land they need to set up manufacturing units.

In a democracy, obviously getting in power is crucial and whoever is in politics would like his or her place under the sun. Right to Food and the Land acquisition legislations clearly are aimed at this. But here, there is a mismatch between the political aspirations of the ruling Congress-led UPA and the ground realities. Political aspirations are overriding economic realities of the country and there lies the danger. (September 2, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/economics-versus-politics--politics-wins.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/economics-versus-politics-politics-wins.html

Battlelines drawn within Congress

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

BJP may have its share of inner party tussle and one upmanship but Congress clearly has the edge when it comes to leaders exchanging blows in public, physically as well as through their statements.

The latest came on the same day last week in the two neighboring States of Punjab and Haryana. In Yamunanagar, supporters of Union Minister Selja and loyalists of Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda not only abused each other but also exchanged blows. For a long time, Selja has been in the forefront of a faction in the party which is against Hooda and alleging discrimination in developmental work.  In Punjab, former Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh raised a banner of revolt against PCC President Partap Singh Bajwa questioning his style of functioning and announcement of names for polls through a press statement. After his removal as the State Congress President, Capt Amarinder has used all tricks in his sleeve to destabilise Bajwa, going to the extent of writing letters to prove the alleged links of his successor even with militants and smugglers. 

In both Punjab and Haryana it is not uncommon to find workers hurling shoes, abuses, sticks and anything that can be used as a missile on each other in their internal meetings. The presence of senior leaders is never a deterrent, rather a motivation to target each other. The hooligans in such meetings want to get noticed by those for whom they are raising their voice, fists and lathis and invariably get rewarded in the long term when their boss gets a good position in the Government.  In Punjab, some party meetings have turned into mini battlefields with the workers treating each other to choicest of Punjabi abuses and hurling anything they find handy at each other with a zeal which would leave people wondering if they belong to the same party.

A few years ago, I was covering a Congress rally at Gohana (Sonepat) in Haryana. At that time a fierce turf war was being fought between the late Bhajan Lal, who was in Congress then and Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who was trying to challenge him as the undisputed leader of the Haryana Congress. In the presence of central leaders, Hooda supporters shouted down Bhajan Lal and the situation could have taken an ugly turn had it not been for the presence of senior AICC functionaries. Some of the Hooda supporters were even armed with black flags which they waived the moment Bhajan Lal disembarked from his vehicle. This was as if an “enemy” of the Congress had made a sudden appearance. The fact that Bhajan Lal had been at the helm of affairs in the state for over a decade was completely lost to the protesting workers.

Now when Hooda has firmly established himself as the most acceptable face of the Congress at the State level, his supporters no longer indulge in such wanton acts. However, rival factions still fight it out for turf space at local meetings in the presence of the Chief Minister. When Chaudhary Birender Singh organized a rally in Jind on August 20, Chief Minister Hooda absented himself though AICC General Secretaries Shakeel Ahmed and Digvijay Singh participated. If Hooda had participated, Birender supporters would have obviously heckled him. Similarly, both Selja and Birender always avoid any official function of Hooda to prevent it becoming a mini battle field between the supporters of each other.

Ask the Congress leaders about such reckless acts on the part of the workers and they would say that as long as long as you raise the slogans of ‘Sonia Gandhi Zindabad’ and Rahul Gandhi Zindabad’ and remain loyal to the first family of the party, no one minds such a behavior. Severe infighting and turf battle is not limited to Punjab and Haryana. In the national Capital, Delhi, Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit is battling PCC President JP Aggarwal as well as AICC General Secretary Ajay Maken, her under study turned bête noire. In fact, in the last almost 15 years of Dikshit’s tenure, the PCC Presidents always remained against her whoever it was—Ram Babu Sharma, Chaudhary Prem Singh or Subhash Chopra.

The battlelines within the Congress are drawn everywhere, wherever you go in India. In Himachal Pradesh, no one is openly speaking against Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh fearing reprisals but PCC chief Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu and two ministers—GS Bali and Thakur Kaul Singh are against the style of functioning of the Chief Minister. They are planning their next move deftly. Haryana has Selja, Birender Singh and Gurgaon MP Rao Inderjit lined up against Hooda.  In Chhattisgarh , it is PCC President Charandas Mahant versus former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi. In Madhya Pradesh, the internal fight is three fold with Jyotiraditya Scindia versus Kamal Nath versus Digvijay Singh.

In Tamil Nadu again there are three players pitched against each other for turf war—Jayanthi Natarajan GK Wasan and P Chidambaram.  How can Kerala be behind as there are factions of Oommen Chandy and Ramesh Chennithala in the southern State. In Uttar Pradesh, there is hardly anything to fight for except the crumbs. But none of the central leaders from the state share a rapport and can sit together to formulate a winning strategy for the state with Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi. In Bihar, Congress does not see itself in power for the next two decades and so there is little question of fighting each other but in neighboring Jharkhand, a bitter war is being fought amongst the leaders for ministerial berths and positions in government and they are not leaving any opportunity to run each other down. 

The Congress Vice President has already issued warning and instructions to all leaders not to indulge in factional fights but no one is listening. All of them are hailing Sonia and Rahul but that is only to justify their political moves. All of them have their own little turfs to protect and the party comes second. A senior leader of the party had an interesting take on the infighting in Congress. He told me that when there are 20 leaders in a State, one becomes the PCC President and 19 start working against him and seek his removal. When the PCC President is finally removed and one from the group of 19 is given the charge, the leader who has been removed now joins the group of 19 and starts working against the new incumbent. “This is a typical Congress tradition,” the leader summed up. (August 26, 2013) 

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-08-26-20005.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/battlelines-drawn-within-congress.html

Bihar becomes a quagmire of political possibilities

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Mahatma Gandhi started his experiments of mass mobilisation from Champaran, 96 years ago in 1917. As Champaran and Bihar prepare to celebrate the centenary of the mass movement against the British Indigo planters and the setting up of the Bhitiharwa Ashram in the district, Congress sits on the sidelines wondering what to do to regain its lost base in the State.

It has been almost a quarter of century when Congress lost its dominant political space to resurgent OBC politics of the State. A visit to the district Congress office in the heart of the small town of Bettiah, the headquarters of West Champaran district, illustrates the position of Congress in the region and the State.

The district headquarters of the 127-year-old party hardly hosted any function or had any visitors for the last several years. The wooden doors and even its frames have been removed from most of the rooms over a period of time by the miscreants and the dilapidated building in a sprawling complex could fall anytime. There is no chair or table anywhere and no one visits the place. Even the children of the nearby areas do not play in the compound which has no boundary wall, fearing that this could be a haunted place. Stray buffaloes and pigs make merry in the pools of water in the monsoons.

A day before Independence Day this year, the sprawling 2-acre complex in the heart of the town, was inundated in knee-deep water till someone realised late in the afternoon that the national flag had to be unfurled the next day. A cut was hurriedly made to ensure that the rain water collected in the complex could be drained out. On Independence Day, merely three people turned out for the flag hoisting ceremony and the senior most amongst them, an 81-year old, was given the honour of unfurling the Tricolor. After doing the honours, the senior citizens simply walked to their houses in the vicinity. They were doing the ritual for the last few years only out of habit and the sentiments attached to Independence Day. They swore by the name of Mahatma Gandhi but none of them believed in policies and programmes of the Congress of this century under Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Manmohan Singh.

The state of the Congress office in the district, often called the Karma Bhoomi of Mahatma Gandhi, a Congress bastion for decades, reflects the position of the party in the rest of Bihar. Not surprisingly, Congress last won a Lok Sabha election in West Champaran parliamentary constituency (earlier Bettiah) almost 30 years ago in 1984 when a sympathy wave after assassination of Indira Gandhi saw it through. Ask the local residents here and they will tell you that this parliamentary constituency would not send a Congress nominee to Parliament for the next two decades unless a miracle happened.

Not only West Champaran constituency but in entire Bihar, a realignment of political forces and castes is taking place after the 17-year-old alliance between JDU and BJP ended on a bitter note. In this quagmire of alignments and emerging caste equations, no one for sure knows how the three main parties-JDU, BJP and Lalu Prasad’s RJD would fare in the Lok Sabha elections in the State. Congress has been practically written off unless it manages an alliance with JDU. Even Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar will have a tough time in Sasaram if she contests as people of the State and her constituency saw her only on TV news channels not in the State and amongst the people who elected her.

Of the 40 members it sends to Lok Sabha, JDU got 20, BJP 12, RJD 4, Congress 2 and Independents 2 in the 2009 polls. As the caste equations assiduously built over the last almost two decades by JDU-BJP has gone topsy-turvy, even the seasoned political analysts in Bihar would find it difficult to predict the pre 2014 voter mood. BJP could gain in the State but Lalu Prasad’s RJD too is expected to do better than last time. The caste combinations of all the parties have crumbled and there is little time now to consolidate and cultivate new vote banks.

The Muslims in the State are divided between JDU and RJD and even though JDU would get a chunk of their votes as Nitish Kumar withdrew from the NDA on the issue of Narendra Modi, RJD is not a pushover. It has started a campaign saying how Kumar will join NDA after the polls and how he was with the BJP all these years. This has confused the Muslims who will go for strategic voting, looking for a candidate of either the JDU or RJD who is in a better position to defeat BJP in each of the 40 seats.

This polarisation and strategic voting by Muslims would help BJP in several segments and give it an opportunity to consolidate its upper caste vote bank and also get the votes of urban OBCs and even upwardly mobile dalits. But the gains are not significant as it has lost significant sections of the poorer OBCs or what is called the non-creamy layer due to its alliance with JDU. While the Yadav community nurses the ambition of getting Lalu Prasad a dominant political space and the Kurmi community to Nitish Kumar, it is the other intermediary castes which are being targeted by all the parties to get a lion’s share of votes.

Both JDU and BJP will have to select 40 candidates each and that is not an easy task as last time they fought on 25 and 15 seats, respectively. Political turncoats are sensing an opportunity here and they can switch seamlessly from one party to the other.

Sadhu Yadav, brother in-law of Lalu Prasad, has met Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi indicating that no one is untouchable. He fought on a Congress ticket from West Champaran last time and could well be a BJP candidate anywhere in the State in 2014. JDU has realised that there could be desertions in a closely fought contest and has taken back the suspension of its MPs. BJP is closely watching the situation and doing its homework to select 25 winning candidates. As 2014 could perhaps be the last time before the political obituary of RJD is written, the party is motivated and already campaigning.

The churning of caste and community equations is still taking place in Bihar even though polls are not far off. The macro issues of performance of UPA and development would be the core issues along with the micro issues of caste equations and consolidation of newer vote banks. At this juncture, Bihar is headed for a three-way contest but the most bitter fight will be between the old allies-JDU and BJP. (August 19, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/bihar-becomes-a-quagmire-of-political-possibilities.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2013-08-19-19105.html

Rajasthan, MP, Chhatisgarh and Delhi Gateway to 2014

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Forget opinion polls and study of voter behaviour, the results of Assembly elections in four states—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi — weeks before the Lok Sabha elections, would be first and true indicator of the way political wind is blowing in the country.

Together, these four States send 72 members to Lok Sabha and in the 2009 polls, Congress had a distinct edge, getting 41 members elected from these States while the BJP had to be content with only 29 seats. Clearly, percentage wise the size of Congress victory and its margin over BJP in these four States was more or less similar to the one it had at the national level where it formed the government. Congress got 204 seats while the BJP had to do with 117 which saw Manmohan Singh getting a second term as Prime Minister.

Given the sample size of actual voting in the four States headed for Assembly polls, which also includes the metropolitan city of Delhi, the two main parties must be closely watching the countdown to Assembly elections to get a feel of the voter’s pulse and their heart beat. There is little doubt that whoever wins the most Lok Sabha seats in these states will form the next government in Delhi, the way it happened in 2009.

Of course, voting mindset and pattern differ from Assembly elections to Lok Sabha elections, but in these four States, voting pattern in both Assembly polls in 2008 and Lok Sabha polls in 2009 was more or less similar. This was perhaps due to the fact that there was a difference of only six months in voting for Assembly polls and the Lok Sabha polls in all these four states. In six months, the voter behaviour does not change much.

Congress which was in power in Rajasthan at the time of Lok Sabha election in 2009, got an impressive 21 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats while the BJP performed poorly getting only 3 seats. In Delhi, where Sheila Dikshit has carved out a Congress bastion for almost 15 years, BJP was completely wiped out, failing to open its account as Congress won all the seven seats.

In the BJP bastion of Chhattisgarh where Raman Singh was firmly in saddle, the saffron party won an impressive 10 of the 11 seats with Congress getting the remaining one. In Madhya Pradesh, Congress sought to make a comeback by getting 12 of the 29 seats. BJP got 16 even though it was ruling the State and even in Assembly polls had performed impressively.

Given the current scenario, of the four states going to Assembly polls in December this year, three could see BJP forming the Government and with a little luck and effort even the fourth could be in its grip. There is little to doubt that BJP will get back to power for the third consecutive term in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh given the fact that Congress has more or less washed its hands off the two states. Though Congress has several towering leaders from Madhya Pradesh—Digvijay Singh, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Kamal Nath amongst others, it does not have the State in its radar of victory as of now. In Chhattisgarh, the setback by the Maoists killing top Congress leaders is a factor but even before that the party had done little to counter Raman Singh government. His model of Food Security and efficient administration despite large Maoist presence, can clearly win him another term without much of an electoral struggle.

In Rajasthan, anti incumbency is set to take a toll on the Ashok Gehlot Government as the state has seen incumbent governments being voted out in recent years. Even in the last Assembly polls in December 2008, Congress just managed to scrape through despite a bitter infighting in BJP and its victory was hardly impressive. Now when, Vasundhara Raje is raring to go with BJP uniting behind her, Congress would find it difficult to retain the State.

The most interesting battle would perhaps be in Delhi Assembly elections. Three terms of anti-incumbency of the State Government and two terms of the Central Government has had some impact but not enough to ensure the defeat of Sheila Dikshit in the national Capital.  Though BJP won all the three municipal corporations in the Municipal elections, infighting and inability to find the winning formula has kept the party in the backseat. If it comes out with a trump card in the remaining four months and the voters indeed want to punish Dikshit for her acts of omission and commission pertaining to Commonwealth Games, then BJP might have the final word. But even if BJP wins, it will be more due to voter fatigue and the disappointment with 10 years of UPA rule than anything else. In either case, Delhi promises to be a photo finish and is being watched closely.

Given this scenario, it would not be surprising to see BJP in 2014 Lok Sabha polls getting close to what Congress got in 2009, something in the range of 38-42 seats with Congress getting in the range of 26-30 seats in the four States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. These four States would see a direct fight between the two main claimants of power in 2014—Congress and BJP and there is practically no presence of any other party.  The Aam Aadmi Party would make a political debut in Delhi and remains an untested phenomenon though unlikely to affect the outcome. Bahujan Samaj Party started well in Madhya Pradesh but has lost the script now. In Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan, there is no party worth the name except Congress and BJP.

If BJP did well in all the states and manages to form Government in at least three, this would be an ominous sign for the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections. If it wins all the four, the writing would be on the wall. There is a section in the Congress which believes that Lok Sabha elections could be advanced to be held simultaneously with the Assembly polls in these four states so that there is no adverse fallout. They also believe that Samajwadi Party could pull out at the earliest given an opportunity and Congress should preempt that possibility and prevent SP getting an edge in Uttar Pradesh by announcing early Lok Sabha polls. Whatever the case may be, in the final analysis, the results of these four states would indeed prove to be the true indicator as to who would rule from New Delhi for the next five years starting May 2014. (August 12, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-08-11-18385.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/rajasthan-mp-chhattisgarh-and-delhi-gateway-to-2014.html 

Will the Food Security Act be a game changer for Congress?

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Last week, I was in Delhi to attend a seminar on Food Security in which the model adopted by the Chhatisgarh Government for almost eight years now stood out as a harbinger of change, something which the other State Governments and the Centre need to learn from.

The State Government brought in the Chhatisgarh Food Security Act much before the Centre thought of it and the law was passed in the Assembly in December last year. The Government there did its homework, prepared the ground, brought in the law only after eight years of the model being implemented when it had already become a runaway success in providing food to the needy all over the State by 7th of every month.

Most people outside Chhatisgarh know the State more for the Maoist violence but few know the reasons why the Raman Singh Government was voted for the second consecutive term and there is little reason to suspect that it will not complete a hat trick in the Assembly elections to be held later this year. Food Security is obviously one of the main factors, even critic would concede.

Ahead of the Monsoon session of Parliament which will debate the proposed Food Security Act for the country, I fail to understand how it will be a game changer for the Congress the way NREGA and loan waiver were in the 2009 Lok Sabha. Most of the States are implementing various models of food security for the last several years offering rice at Rs 1, 2 or Rs 3 per kg. In fact, this has been the electoral agenda of Dravidian parties for several decades now and also catapulted the charismatic NT Rama Rao in power in Andhra Pradesh over 25 years ago.

Why will people vote for the Congress in Chhatisgarh on this issue where food security is in place for the last 8 years or in Tamil Nadu where it exists for the last four decades. In Punjab, the Akali Dal-BJP Government has put in place a roti-dal scheme in which 15 lakh families benefit, a figure which has now gone up to 30 lakh after the Ordinance of the Central Government, covering 48 per cent of the population of the State.

Though no one is opposing the Food Security Act per se, State Governments are saying they already have a better model firmly in place for years. Chhatisgarh of course has a model which needs to be implemented and amended keeping in view the ground realities in every State. Then you have the claim of Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal that the Centre merely copied the food security ordinance from the atta-dal scheme introduced by Akali Dal Government in 2007.

The Akali Dal leaders say that the food security ordinance is a “vote security ordinance of the Congress and just a political gimmick”. They are accusing the Congress of “trying to woo the electorate in view of ensuing Lok Sabha polls with the half-baked food security ordinance”.  Other leaders in the State say the scheme was not a realistic one. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa has termed it as “food insecurity ordinance” suggesting several amendments in her letter to the Prime Minister.  She suggested amending the Bill so that allocation of foodgrain to those states that are implementing a public distribution system delivering a higher level of coverage than the ordinance provides for is protected.  She said due to the Ordinance, the monthly allocation of food grains for the State will decline by nearly 100,000 tonnes, from the current level of 296,000 tonnes. The centre’s food security scheme aims to provide five kg of grain at Rs 1-3 per kg to 67 per cent of country’s population. It is expected to cost Rs 1.2 lakh crore.

In the Delhi seminar, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh supported Food Security for the poor but criticised the national Food Security Ordinance saying it had inadequate provisions and would be ineffective when implemented. He said the central Act covers 67 per cent of population whereas Chattisgarh scheme covers 90 per cent. He urged the Centre to emulate Chhattisgarh Food Security model for betterment of poor in the country. The Chief Minister added that different States have different criteria and every State has different economic situation so one needs to understand these aspects before implementing the Food Security Act. He said it took him about six years in the field to prepare the ground work before implementing the Act in the State, while the Centre has done no homework at all.

According to Raman Singh, Public Distribution System is a chain that involves production, procurement and distribution of food grain and to implement the Food Security Act, one has to have all the three in place. “Does the Centre have the storage capacity to store the food grains and what about the transparency aspect in the Act?” he asked,  adding that it will not take less than ten years for the government before it can put a system in place to implement the Food Security Act. 

As the politics on food grain continues and brownie points scored, there is no plan in place for procurement and storage of the food grains.  Travel on the highways in Punjab and Haryana and you find thousands of tones of foodgrain lying in the open, covered merely by a plastic sheet. There is simply no storage place and movement of the food grains from the food basket of the country is extremely slow.

When procurement of wheat began in Punjab this year, it already had nearly 8 million tonnes in the godowns which was much more than what is normally kept for meeting any possible food crisis. “The movement to other parts of the country was extremely slow in the last 12 months — both Rabi and Kharif crops,” an official admitted, adding that the Centre needs to look into this aspect seriously and urgently.

Those involved in procurement and distribution say storage capacity is simply not there, private sector is not coming up in the food storage sector and the food grains have to face the vagaries of nature lying in the open. They want these to be addressed and incorporated in the proposed Act so that accountability is fixed and wastage be treated as an offence.

When Parliament debates the issues threadbare in the Monsoon Session, the country expects members to rise above partisan party politics and address all issues raised by the stakeholders which includes procurement, scientific storage, proper movement and strengthening of the Public Distribution System.  All these have to be incorporated in the proposed Act along with the provisions of successful models like the one in Chhatisgarh. Food security cannot be merely treated as a vote bank politics and allowed to die down, the way several central schemes have. Congress led UPA has already started treating it as an electoral gimmick for the Lok Sabha elections allowing several rough edges in the Ordinance which if implemented, could only lead to failure. (August 5, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-08-05-17482.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/will-the-food-security-act-be-a-game-changer-for-congress.html

Prime Ministerial stakes in 2014

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

  

Opinion and exit polls are to be taken with a pinch of salt. What they reveal is crucial but what they conceal is vital. They have gone horribly wrong on several occasions while occasionally, they have been able to help gauge public opinion as to which way the wind is blowing.

A recent survey shows the NDA marginally ahead of the UPA. Even as the Congress is losing ground in a big way, the gains for the BJP are not enough to catapult it to power in the elections. But the opinion poll pertains to the present situation and has several variables like the turn of events in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls and also the NDA and UPA getting new allies.

BJP campaign committee chief Narendra Modi is clearly helping his party get votes in several states and the urban areas. Elevation of Modi coupled with the general disenchantment with the Congress-led UPA is helping BJP get 30 more seats than the Congress in the opinion polls.

Given the fact that either NDA or UPA will be in a position to form government with the present allies they have, it would all boil down to the mathematics of addition and subtraction after the polls. It seems the winner would not be decided by the people but in the drawing rooms of Lutyen’s Delhi. If that indeed happens, there could be nothing more unfortunate for Indian democracy. Remember, how the country fared with Prime Ministers like HD Deve Gowda, Inder Kumar Gujaral, Chandra Shekhar and earlier Chaudhary Charan Singh. All these leaders were selected as prime ministers through political maneuvering in the drawing rooms of senior leaders in New Delhi rather than by the people. Even VP Singh was chosen on the political chessboard though he enjoyed popular support in 1989 when he overthrew the Rajiv Gandhi Government and became Prime Minister on the crutches of the Left and the Right.

In BJP, there is an internal debate raging ever since Modi was catapulted to the centrestage. Talk to some leaders and they would admit after some prodding. BJP leaders admit privately that Modi could take the party to the threshold of power, the way LK Advani did in the Mandir days, but when it comes to enjoying the perks, he will be at a natural disadvantage. They point out that there is many a slip between the cup and the lip as far as Modi’s prime ministerial ambitions are concerned. They say post verdict mathematics and internal dynamics could install either LK Advani, Rajnath Singh or Sushma Swaraj in the chair in the name of “broader political consensus”. And, it would be the post poll mavericks, moves and realpolitik which will make or break Modi’s ambitions.

Look at a possible scenario where NDA, which includes BJP, Akali Dal and Shiv Sena gets 180 seats, almost 90 short of power. From where will it get the numbers from? If JDU in Bihar has say 20 seats but wants Advani on the chair, will the BJP have the conviction to refuse the offer of support? Similarly, if BSP manages 25 seats in UP and joins hands with JDU saying that they don’t want Modi as PM but anyone else from the BJP is acceptable, will the saffron party be able to resist such a pressure?

If NDA has any realistic chance of forming the next Government at the Centre, it will have to do business with its erstwhile allies like the AIADMK, JDU, Trinamool Congress, Biju Janata Dal and also possibly BSP in Uttar Pradesh and the TDP or TRS in Andhra Pradesh. Except AIADMK which would agree to Modi’s name, none of the other potential allies have shown any such inclination and will seek their pound of flesh and that would obviously be any other name not that of the Gujarat Chief Minister. If BJP wants Modi on the chair and wants to reward him for bringing the party close to power, it will have to single handedly get 200 seats and then the remaining numbers could come without any problem or preconditions imposed by other parties. If the people of the country indeed want Modi for the top job, they will have to restrict Congress to below 125 seats and give over 200 to BJP. Simply put, if the BJP wants to come to power, the difference with Congress has to be around 75 seats. Anything less at this point of time will not help its cause.

What is clearly discernible at this juncture is that despite doing badly in its second term, Congress is convinced that the moment it crosses 150 and keeps NDA in the region of 180, it will be in an advantageous position. It won’t have to work hard to get the allies given the fact that the secularism-communalism debate is turning shriller and BJP is trying its best to get into the trap laid by the Congress. Obviously, Congress would like the election to be a referendum on secularism so that people forget the mega serial scams, mis-governance, inflation, unemployment, lack of growth and general economic despondency.

While BJP has almost got into the Congress trap of secularism, the grand old party has refused to take the bait of BJP which wants 2014 to be a contest between two personalities — Modi and Rahul Gandhi. Congress knows that the moment it is converted into a battle of personalities, the way it is done in the presidential system of the United States, it stands little chance. Rahul is yet to show anything worthwhile or a successful model of governance, preferring to be a man of the organisation. Modi, on the other hand, has a successful track record in politics and earlier in the organisation.

Post polls, while BJP could be burdened with the choice of the Prime Minister, I think in Congress the choice would be rather easy this time — Rahul Gandhi. If Congress insists on retaining Manmohan Singh, it will easily lose around three dozen seats in the country so lacklustre has been his performance. Rahul, on the other hand, is an untested commodity with apparently a committed though NGO type approach towards governance. Though all his political ventures have failed — Assembly elections in UP, going alone in Bihar, so called democratisation of Youth Congress, etc but still Congress has USP of youth in Rahul. But given the way Rahul functions, he would show any interest in the job only if the party gets over 200 seats on its own, a distinct impossibility at this point of time. Perhaps Rahul and his close aides would be ruing their decision in 2009 when Manmohan Singh became the Prime Minister for the second time in a row and not the scion of the Gandhi-Nehru family despite Congress crossing the figure of 200 on its own and running a comfortable Government for over four years now.

Some in the Congress now say that Manmohan Singh could have been asked to “retire” on health ground during the halfway phase of UPA II, sometime towards the end of 2011 and Rahul installed in his place. That could have helped the party counter anti-incumbency and also Rahul could have taken some pro-people vote catching decisions in the remaining tenure. But that was not to be. It’s too late now for such a misadventure. (July 29, 2013)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/prime-ministerial-stakes-in-2014.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2013-07-28-16657.html

Maturing of Indian Democracy: Don’t take voters for granted

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

The countdown for the big battle of 2014 has begun with the BJP constituting a massive team to help the party come to power after a decade in wilderness. Constitution of as many as 20 committees with 98 leaders clearly indicates that this is a “please all” formula which the Congress has been practicing for decades.

Apart from the all inclusive mammoth team, what is clear from the overhaul is the fact that Narendra Modi had his way in the constitution of the committees and their role in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections. Now there is hardly any doubt that he would be the unannounced prime ministerial candidate of the party and even a coup, possibly by LK Advani, would not change that equation. 

As per the scheme of things in BJP, only two leaders—Advani and party President Rajnath Singh—would not report to him. All others, including Leaders of Opposition in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley would report to him in the all powerful Campaign Committee. While Modi is the President of this Committee, other party leaders, some of whom were thought to be his challengers, are mere members. This includes not only the leaders of opposition in the two Houses of Parliament but also former BJP Presidents and heavyweights.

While BJP would not admit that the new team has a stamp of Modi and would insist that it believes in collective leadership, Congress has no such qualms. It went gaga last month when a reshuffle was carried out in the AICC and said with much fanfare that this has the stamp of Rahul. Obviously, if anything happens in the Congress, it has to have the stamp of Rahul or party Chief Sonia Gandhi. Nothing happens without their approval. Congress may be crying hoarse that it is for internal party democracy, holds internal elections, so on and so forth but ask any leader—big or small—and they would tell you that the hierarchy in the party begins and stops at Sonia and Rahul Gandhi.

With Modi taking a centre stage, BJP would have to guard against this authoritarianism which has existed in Congress since the days of Nehru and Indira. Congress may have won successive elections and claim that people’s love brought it to power but the fact remains that except when Narasimha Rao was the Prime Minister, the party for all practical purposes was family owned, managed and controlled. Simply put, the party cannot imagine itself without the family. BJP would be better served if it manages to keep away from authoritarianism of a person (Modi) or an organisation (RSS) and continues in the philosophy of collective leadership to distinguish itself from the 127 year old Congress.

This is important as the people and electorate of the country are maturing and have shown tremendous maturity while electing their representatives and the Governments—both at the State-level and Central Government. You simply cannot take the voters of the country for granted given the tremendous skills they have employed to judge who is better to govern them for the next five years. They have set aside all conventional theories, giving a tough time to the pollsters and the psephologists.

Take the largest State of the country—Uttar Pradesh—which gave a clear verdict for the Samajwadi Party in 2012 and earlier the BSP in 2007. There was no confusion in the minds of the voters as to who was better suited to run the state government for two successive terms after a rag tag of coalitions ruled them for several years. Similarly, when the Congress led UPA formed the Government at the Centre in 2009, the party managed a remarkable 22 seats in the State—it’s best ever performance in two decades. But as the Congress was nowhere in the picture in the Assembly polls to form a Government, all it managed was 28 seats in the 2012 polls. This shows the maturity of the voters and their preferences as to whom they want as head of the Government.

In Punjab, which has never seen the repetition of the same Government ever since 1966, the Akali Dal-BJP Government came to power again in 2012. For the first time in four and a half decades, there was a pro-incumbency vote in the State in favour of SAD-BJP.  

In the first term of the UPA (2004-09), Congress did reasonably well and brought in policies like NAREGA and loan waivers and was catapulted to power for the second time in a row. It is a different matter that in its second avatar, fatigue has set in and it has mismanaged almost everything and derailed the economic policies, affecting every section of the populace.

If we go to each State and analyse the voting pattern in the last 10 years or so, we see a pattern of maturity amongst the Indian voters. They elected Sheila Dikshit in Delhi for three consecutive terms and Narendra Modi in Gujarat for an equal number of terms along with Tarun Gogoi  in Assam. The same voters in Gujarat voted overwhelmingly for Modi in Assembly elections but in Lok Sabha elections, they gave a respectable 12 of the 26 seats to Congress indicating that they differentiate between a local and a national election and vote accordingly.

In Madhya Pradesh, Congress was rejected twice in a row and it could well be a hat-trick of rejections later this year in favour of BJP’s pro development agenda.  People in the state still remember how the Digvijay Singh led Congress government empowered the local self-Government while crippling all development and economy. Madhya Pradesh could be repeated in Chhattisgarh as well. The voters rewarded Congress in Andhra Pradesh, Haryana and Maharashtra for good governance and also lack of unity in the Opposition ranks. They also recognised how the Left parties had misruled West Bengal for decades and brought in Mamata Banerjee though she might not have lived up to their expectations. Naveen Patnaik has been going strong in Odisha on the ruins of the Congress for a while now. In Bihar, backed by good performance, JDU-BJP came to power. Obviously the equations have changed after BJP withdrew support to JDU and it is a three cornered contest in the State in the next Lok Sabha polls.

Also the voters changed Governments in five years wherever they saw that their aspirations have not been fulfilled and wherever they expected more from their elected Government. Karnataka brought Congress back to power after five years and so did Himachal Pradesh. Tamil Nadu brought in AIADMK while in Kerala the see-saw continued with Congress led UDF coming to power though the margin was wafer thin. In Goa, BJP’s Manohar Parrikar having a clean image got a clear mandate overriding all affiliations and he has managed to deliver since then.

For the 2014 elections, voters are in the process of making their mind. A lot of them must have already done so. They have shown tremendous maturity in the last few years in choosing who would govern them. If any political party takes them for granted, it would be at its own peril. (July 22, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-07-21-15793.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/maturing-of-indian-democracy-dont-take-voters-for-granted.html

BJP needs to rethink political discourse

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Narendra Modi was doing fine as the Campaign Committee chief of the BJP though there were tremors of minor magnitude all around. The sulking LK Advani created ripples for a while but it subsided after a few headlines. As expected the Janata Dal United walked out of the alliance but the impact may be marginal.

But one interview which he gave to Reuters has been the subject of hundreds of interpretations. Almost everyone is interpreting it with their respective ideological and political baggage. But the damage seems to have been done. The Modi baiters clearly managed to interpret the interview to their advantage and made the secular-communal debate shriller ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

Modi had so far managed to avoid media and refused to give interviews something which the Congress trio of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Manmohan Singh has done throughout their respective careers. The Prime Minister, however, has given “controlled” interviews where the line of questions was obviously reverential. I do not remember Sonia Gandhi and Rahul speaking their mind out in any interview so far though they have addressed a few press conferences. Obviously, this is a political master stroke. Though no one knows what they think on crucial national issues, politics, economy or international relations, the mystery element keeps them going.

Perhaps Modi wanted to “demystify” himself in the run-up to the polls and gave an interview which is now widely seen as a trigger of further polarisation on communal lines. No one would be happier than the Congress which has been fighting a losing battle all these four years on the back of a series of scams, misgovernance, badly run economy and a crisis of credibility.

The interview of Modi has shifted the goal post, at least for the time being. A politician like Modi would have known how each and every word he speaks is open to varied interpretations and clearly he did not choose his words carefully. He would also know that whatever he says is scrutinised in terms of secular-communal idiom and here he should have learnt lessons from the trio of Sonia-Rahul and Manmohan who never speak on anything significant. However, hard you try; you cannot interpret anything from what they speak.

By shifting the debate from misgovernance and corruption to the secular-communal platform, Congress has outsmarted BJP when time was running out for the ruling party in the Centre. Given the dynamics of Indian politics and the reality existing on the ground, only alliances would help either the BJP or the Congress to head the next government at the Centre. It is here that the grand old party of the country has sought to pin down the Modi led BJP. The more the

secular-communal debate gets shriller in days to come, the more Congress would gain in terms of new allies at the cost of the BJP.

A senior bureaucrat, well versed in the nuances of Indian politics, has analysed the voting pattern and the number of seats which the BJP got after the 1989 Lok Sabha elections in each of the State, considered its stronghold. He chose the best performance of BJP in every state since that election to arrive at the conclusion that even if the saffron party manages to repeat its best performance in each state (like winning over 50 seats in UP once, over 20 seats in Gujarat once and most of the seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Chattisgarh), the tally would not cross 250. Obviously, there is no such wave for the BJP at this juncture to repeat its best performance in the last 24 years in each of these States.

So from where do the numbers come? It has to come through the regional players and the post election give and take could be crucial here. But when the agenda on which the election is fought is converted into a debate on secularism and communalism, BJP would be in a distinct disadvantage.

If one starts from the biggest state of Uttar Pradesh which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha, both the main parties BSP and Samajwadi Party are allied with the Congress. SP would never back the BJP given its ideological moorings and vote base. BSP has done business with the BJP in the past but it seems unlikely at this juncture. So will the BJP manage to cross 50 seats in the largest State of the country? Even the most optimistic BJP supporter would rule it out. For the BJP, it has been the law of diminishing returns in UP and Modi or Amit Shah may not help the cause beyond a point.

In Bihar, which sends 40 members to the Lok Sabha, BJP may gain a seat here or there from what it has right now. But the gains would be offset by the loss due to JDU going away and likely to support Congress.

In West Bengal while the Left Front is ruled out, Mamata Banerjee has been a part of previous NDA Government. But even when she was a part of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Cabinet, she created one problem after the other, the way she did to the present UPA government before walking out. BJP would need a lot of convincing skill to persuade Banerjee and she will weigh her options carefully before lending support as this would alienate a section of her minority vote bank in the State.

Odisha’s Naveen Pattnaik did support BJP but since then a lot of water has flown in the Ganges and is happy ensconced as a freelancer of Indian politics. He is likely to remain aloof — maintaining equidistance from both Congress and BJP.

In Andhra Pradesh, none of the two main parties — headed by Chandra Babu Naidu and Jaganmohan Reddy would support BJP. The third party TRS mat support it provided BJP comes out with an open support for Telengana. In Maharashtra, the seats have been traditionally divided by four parties — Shiv Sena, BJP, NCP and Congress. There is little to indicate that this time it would be different.

There is a possibility of AIADMK supporting Modi led BJP but that is perhaps the only silver lining in the entire political dynamics being played out. In Karnataka, BJP has gone for a six and even if Yeddyurappa joins it, the fortunes are not likely to change much.

So BJP managers would be wondering from where the allies would come to help Modi form the government even if the party does exceptionally well and gets over 160 Lok Sabha seats. They know it well that 180 seats of BJP under Modi is equivalent to 130 seats by the Congress as the Sonia Gandhi led party could have allies ranging from Left to SP, BSP, DMK, JDU and others just on the name of keeping the “communal forces out of power”.

When Modi spoke at the Fergusson College in Pune on Sunday, he tried to bury the controversy over his interview and spoke on issues which the middle class, the youth and the people of the country wants to hear. He talked about the social media to connect with youth, how the country needs a proper direction, how the youth can contribute to the growth of both India and the world, the power of positive thinking, how there are solutions to all problems, nation building through human resource development, etc.

This could perhaps be the way forward. If BJP wants to attract more allies in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections either as pre poll partners or post poll tie-ups, it has to guard itself from falling in the trap of secular-communal laid down by the Congress and refuse to bog down on Ayodhya Ram Temple issue (raised by Amit Shah) or the post Godhra riots (Modi interview). Development, reforms, youth centric policies, growth, modernization, empowerment and vision for the future has to be the central point of the debate for the party. The moment it falls in the Congress trap, its doomsday. (July 15, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-07-15-15031.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/bjp-needs-to-rethink-political-discourse.html

Political consensus needed to fight terror

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

In the last three decades, there have been hundreds and thousands of deaths in encounters, both genuine and staged all over the country from Jammu & Kashmir to Kanyakumari.

All law enforcement agencies from the State police to the paramilitary forces and army have been involved in these encounters not only in States facing secessionist violence and insurgency but also in peaceful metro cities of New Delhi and Mumbai. In fact, terrorists and gangsters who were hanged after due process of law in three decades would not even touch the figure of two dozen if compared to the encounter deaths which must be in thousands.

But except two-three encounters in the last three decades, none became the talking point of the entire country the way Ishrat Jahan encounter case in Gujarat has. The encounter was politicised by the Congress so much so that almost everyone in the country now has an opinion with some justifying the killing of terrorists in encounters and others arguing that the due process of law should be followed. With CBI’s independence still a far cry, motives are being attributed to the agency for toeing the Congress line in this case, filing a suspicious looking charge sheet, bringing the Intelligence Bureau in the picture as co-conspirators and also attempt to find political motive for the killing of terrorists. The Congress has deviously managed to polarise the people on religious lines and divide public opinion in the country forcing the BJP to practically stop short of justifying the extra-judicial killings.

I have followed the Ishrat Jahan encounter case from the very beginning and it was a simple explanation expected of the police force in any such killing — staged, controlled or genuine. There was an input from the Intelligence Bureau. A gang of terrorists wanted to kill Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and before they could do that, the police spotted them and fired at them when challenged leading to the deaths.

As a journalist, I have seen hundreds of such Press releases by the police from almost every State of the country. Even in small mofussil towns of the Hindi heartland in the 1980s and 1990s, journalists on the crime beat would vouch for the regularity of such releases and how encounters took place. It went like this. “A gang of three-four people were sitting on a small bridge in the late evening hours. They were planning to commit a dacoity. When the police reached there on a specific tip-off and challenged the criminals, they opened fire. When the police fired in self-defence, one person was killed and the others fled taking advantage of darkness. A country made pistol, a knife and live cartridges were recovered from the spot”.

This was the standard release from the police forces in several parts of the country a few years ago. The language could be different, the arms recovered could be different or the place of encounter could be a semi-forest area or a deserted park. The details were strikingly similar. No one shed any tears for the dead as invariably they were wanted in a series of cases and the locals always rejoiced such killings as it made their life better without fear of the criminals. When dacoits were killed in Chambal region or elsewhere in UP and Bihar, their bodies were tied on tractors, and announcement made on a megaphone that so and so has been killed. People used to come out of their houses, see the body, rejoice and even garland the team of police which had conducted the killing. None of the villagers ever asked if the encounter was fake or genuine when they saw the bodies of the dacoits who had tormented them on vehicles.

If the newspaper readers recall, statements about encounters were routine not only from the insurgency-hit Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, the North East but even in places in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Of course, the Mumbai Police and the Delhi Police had their encounter specialists who bragged that they have killed 50 or 60 gangsters in encounters. No one asked them how they did it as long as a gangster was involved. There were invariably huge gaps in how the encounters took place and why did they take place.

In Punjab, which perhaps remains one of the world’s few places, where armed insurgency backed by Pakistan was vanquished, releases from the security forces were quite similar. “Two people were riding a motorbike. They approached a check post and when questioned, opened fire from automatic weapons…The police retaliated. When the firing from the other side came to an end, police found two bodies. Two AK 47 rifles with four magazines were recovered. They were later identified as so and so from so and so organisation”. Any person who used to read the newspapers and watched State-owned Doordarshan news in the early 1990s would recall that this happened almost everyday, sometimes twice a day when the security forces led by the Punjab Police started having an upper hand against the terrorists before liquidating them completely. There are gaping holes in these. But no questions were raised.

Could anyone believe today that it was a Congress Government headed by Beant Singh in Punjab which had a DGP like KPS Gill which was responsible for the end of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in the border State? Did anyone in the country at that point of time question the modus operandi of the security forces in the fight against terrorism? Everyone was simply looking upto the police for restoring law and order in the State. There was collateral damage, innocents were killed but the larger purpose of the country was solved. Of course, there were CBI cases against some of the encounter deaths in Punjab as well but there was a political consensus between Congress and the Akali Dal in Punjab that terror would not be politicised. The police officers, against whom the CBI registered cases of fake encounters, were defended by top lawyers of the country with the money released by the successive State Governments. Both the ruling parties-Congress and Akali Dal supported them and continue to do so as this was not a war of one police officer against the terrorists but the collective effort of the entire Punjabis. The police officers were risking their lives and doing this not for personal ends and medals but for the country.

Now the same Congress which has such a successful track record of supporting the fight against terrorism in Punjab is shedding tears for the death of terrorists in Gujarat just because it thinks that at this point of time this could help in communal polarisation and secure the votes of the Muslims as those killed were from this community. Since when did the Congress start believing that terrorists have a religion?

It was time for the Congress to do some quick introspection on terrorism and desist from taking mileage out it. Two of its Prime Ministers — Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi — were victims of terror designs. But not long ago, its leader Digvijay Singh was shouting from the rooftop demanding “justice” for the terrorists killed in the Batla House encounter in Delhi. Remember, Delhi is ruled by the Congress and so is the Central Government whose Home Ministry controls the Delhi Police, the personnel of which were involved in that encounter.

No doubt, the law, the Constitution and the process involved has to be followed and no one can be allowed to take a life. But then, things are not always in black and white. There are often shades of grey. There are occasions and circumstances when it is difficult to judge between right and wrong. In security and intelligence parlance, there is a thin line dividing right and wrong and often the line does not exist.

A senior police officer who fought insurgency in Punjab once told me the dilemma which those on the ground face. He gave an illustration. An A-list terrorist, who prided himself in calling Lt General of a Khalistani terror outfit, was caught in a surprise raid. He was named in at least 75 killings, including that of police officials. Now what do they do after catching hold of the terrorist? The jails were not safe as in the heydays of terrorism, jail brakes were not uncommon. The lower judiciary was not willing to try these cases as they themselves faced threat if a terrorist was convicted or even tried. Moreover, ferrying a terrorist to a court and back to jail was a Herculean task in itself as there were several cases in which their fellow terrorists freed them killing the accompanying policemen. The officer left it on the wisdom of the people, the civil society and lawmakers of the country as what needed to be done to the terrorist at that point of time.

It is here that a political consensus is needed. Will the political parties rise to the occasion and build a consensus to fight terror the way they did in Punjab? (July 8, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/political-consensus-needed-to-fight-terror.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2013-07-08-14198.html