The long wait may be over but many questions remain

 

That Rahul Gandhi is finally being elevated to lead the Congress is not surprising at all. Nevertheless, the million dollar question is: Has the Congress scion developed the political acumen to take on the BJP?

Amitabh Shukla

It was one of the worst kept or rather the most publicized secret of Indian politics — Rahul Gandhi becoming the president of the Congress. Ever since he came into politics and contested the Amethi Lok Sabha seat 13 years ago in 2004, there was not even an iota of doubt that he would be the top boss of the party one day.

The reason is simple: ‘Dynasty’ is the keyword for the Congress and a leader, whose mother, father, grandmother and great grandfather have been Congress presidents, would naturally take over the mantle some day. There is no rocket science involved here and everyone, even in the remotest part of the country, perhaps, knew it. It was simply a matter of time as the question merely was ‘when’ and not ‘who’.

No wonder, soon after he became an MP, there had been a consistent clamour by an overwhelming section of the younger generation of Congress leaders, primarily the dynasts and speculation in the middle and upper echelons of the deeply entrenched party men and women, as to when and how will Rahul Gandhi take over from his mother, Sonia Gandhi.

Now that the decks have been cleared and the heir-apparent for a long time would finally take over as Congress president in the first week of December, speculations will finally end. In fact, after having occupied the post of the party president for the highest number of years in the entire 132-year-old history of the Congress, speculation would now be on the role of party chief Sonia Gandhi in the grand old party. Also, what will now be the role of the old guard of the Congress, which has been consistently loyal to Sonia Gandhi and who managed to read her mind over the years as also influenced her directly or indirectly, occasionally in conflict with the stated desires of the younger Gandhi. 

Perhaps what prompted the Congress to anoint Rahul Gandhi as the new party chief at this juncture in the month, when the Congress was founded in 1885, was the perpetual indisposition of 70-year-old Sonia Gandhi. In the high decibel, Himachal Pradesh Assembly election, she did not campaign at all. Even in the ongoing campaign in Gujarat, she is conspicuous by her absence. She was vacationing in Himachal Pradesh when a small bout of illness again forced her to go back to Delhi. She has been in and out of India for treatment for a while now.

In fact, it was the 47-year-old Rahul Gandhi, who was made the party vice president in 2013, who was the de facto party president for the last four years after officially becoming the Number Two in the party hierarchy at the Jaipur convention. It is a different matter that now, this official No. 2 position is being sought to be elevated to Number 1, even though the entire brass of the party knows that the actual decision-making since 2013 was being done by Rahul Gandhi himself.

The million dollar or rather the billion rupee question is: Has Rahul Gandhi re-invented himself to take on the mantle of not only the Congress but also the electoral charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi?

As we can see in the electoral polity, it is increasingly becoming a clash of towering personalities, something similar to the presidential form of contest and electioneering in the United States. Rahul Gandhi proved himself to be incapable of taking on Prime Minister Modi in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, followed by several Assembly elections, the most important of which was the Uttar Pradesh Assembly poll.

In his home State, Rahul Gandhi himself selected the candidates, and decided to go for an electoral alliance with the Samajwadi Party and then faced one of the most crushing defeats of his lifetime, the second time in a row. When he took the mantle in the 2012 Uttar Pradesh poll, taking all decisions, the party just managed a little over five per cent of the seats. Both in 2012 and 2017, the entire political strategy in the largest State of the country of the soon-to-become Congress president collapsed like a house of cards, exposing him to several uncomfortable and probing questions.

Of course, what saved Rahul Gandhi from a complete political humiliation in March this year was the redemption in Punjab to a great extent. Here again, in the clash of two personalities — Capt Amarinder Singh on one side and the Badal duo on the other (Parkash Singh Badal and his son Sukhbir Singh Badal), the former won. Even though Rahul Gandhi’s political strategy was limited to non-interference in Punjab affairs and leaving almost everything to Capt Amarinder, no one would really call it a sign of a maturing Rahul Gandhi. Punjab cannot really be termed as a victory for Rahul Gandhi’s political acumen. Not even the staunchest Congress supporter would buy that argument.

So, what has changed between the disaster of Uttar Pradesh in March and certain ascension of Rahul Gandhi in December? Politically, nothing but perception wise, the Congress is thinking that the tide is somewhat turning against the BJP at the Centre and it is the right time for Rahul Gandhi to take over so that he can be projected as a leader of stature against Modi in the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha poll. The party, perhaps, thinks that by projecting a prime ministerial candidate, they would be able to stitch up an anti-Modi alliance in the remaining months.

There is also a belief amongst Congress strategists that an element of voter fatigue with the BJP has crept in after being in power for three and a half years at the Centre and they are increasingly finding traction once again amongst the electorate.

In the last six months or so, speeches of Rahul Gandhi in foreign countries and during election campaigns in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, is being cited as signs of the maturing of a leader. Of course, Rahul Gandhi does not sound immature now the way he did all through his tenure as a politician, it remains to be seen how it translates into votes in the near future. In fact, trust deficit of the electorate with the Congress has only widened over the years and months since the summer of 2014, when the grand old party of the country was reduced to its lowest figure in its entire electoral history of independent India.

Instead of reinventing itself in any big way and offering a new narrative to counter the electoral juggernaut of the BJP, the Congress is more or less counting on anti-incumbency, if any, against the Modi Government and is hoping that the alleged negative impact of demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax on the economy would help it overcome the political odds stacked against it. Being the principal opposition party at the Centre and most States, it is hoping that it would come to power by default rather than by a concrete design and roadmap. Is it a mere wishful thinking or is there any concrete electoral traction on the ground, only the results of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat on December 18 would show.

Rahul Gandhi would become the party president in the middle of the Gujarat election campaign — a State where the party is hoping to make a comeback bid. Not that the Congress hopefuls are hoping to return to power in a State where they have been out of the equation for decades. All they are thinking at this moment is a good show to use it as a launch pad for the next 16 months when the rival political parties would try to match each other in high decibel in the run up to the general election of 2019. (Nov 26, 2017)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/sunday-edition/agenda/opinion/the-long-wait-may-be-over-but-many-questions-remain.html

Anti incumbency may sway Himachal poll results

 

 

Amitabh Shukla | Chandigarh

One of the most fiercely contested elections recently, Himachal Pradesh is one classic case of democracy where anti incumbency seems to be sole determining factor in the November 9 assembly polls.

If Virbhadra Singh Government is voted out of power forty days later on December 18 when the results are to be announced, it would be largely due to anti-incumbency as the State has been voting out the incumbent Government for the last over three decades without fail.

Not that the six-time Chief Minister has done a lot of development work in the last five years and he needs another term to complete his work. That’s not the case. Himachal is one State where successive Government — BJP and Congress — both have done remarkably well and touched the developmental chord and consistently strived to improve the social and economic indices of the State.

So much so that whoever has been in power, they have focused on core areas like roads, schools, health, transport, women empowerment, horticulture, agriculture tourism etc. Of course, a lot of work still needs to be done as development is an ongoing phenomenon, but it is pleasant to find that there is no politicisation of development in the hill State unlike its neighbours.  Ask the villagers and they will tell you that the BJP started that work and Congress completed it or Congress Government started a particular work and the next BJP Government ensured that it was complete as per the time schedule.

Many villagers do not even associate any work with any political party, simply saying that the government did it. “As long as we get our old age pension on time and other schemes, we are not even bothered to find out who funds the scheme-Centre or the state,” said, Daulat Ram, a village head in Una constituency. Rani, who goes by the first name, and who runs a shop on the highway from Hamirpur to Una, is satisfied with governance as her expectations have been met broadly. “Whatever scheme is announced, either by the Centre or the State, comes here and the villagers get benefit. There is so much awareness now that whoever is in power in Shimla ensures that we are not left out,” she added. 

The general refrain in Himachal is that “it’s a well administered State” and whoever has been in power, has more or less continued the work done by the previous regime, except a few exceptions here and there. Comparison with other states like neighbouring Punjab would be apt as polity here, is completely divided by two adversarial political power structure of Akali Dal and Congress where one upmanship is the norm and verbally tearing each other apart is practiced without fail. Not in Himachal, where good work by the other party keeps on going and the political rival too has little or no issues with it. Even when the local but rival Himachal leaders attack each other, it has little to do with conviction and more to do with political expediency and demands of their respective high command.

Travelling in the hill State during the elections was an eye opener. The bitter acrimony which the rival political parties — BJP and Congress — engage in at the macro level, is absent at the micro level. The high decibel campaign doesn’t really affect the voters living in areas outside the urban habitats and largely they get influenced and go by door to door canvassing and personal touch of candidates. The simple Himachalis in the hinterland are convinced more by their friendly neighborhood candidate and their accessibility than the helicopter flying tall leaders making tall promises or leveling all sorts of accusations against their rivals.

During my travel during elections, I came across numerous tea stall owners, cloth shops, dhaba owners, daily need shops, heads of gram panchayats etc, where the local MLA comes in the evening either for a drink, tea or a simple chat all throughout his or her tenure of five years. Most of the people I interacted with in the villages and the hamlets adjoin the State highways and Major District Roads, personally knew their MLA, had met them and interacted with them on numerous occasions.

“That’s a way of political life her. This is how you conduct your politics here,” said Ramesh Singh, a dhaba owner in Arki constituency. He is a school friend of the sitting MLA Govind Sharma of the BJP and has been voting for the Lotus for the last two terms of Govind Sharma. As his friend Sharma is not contesting this time, he would rather go with Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh who is contesting from Arki for the first time after leaving his Shimla Rural seat for his son Vikramaditya Singh. “I am what you can say, a floating voter. I take a call at the appropriate time. Had Govind Sharma been contesting, it would have been extremely difficult for me but I would have gone with my friend,” he added. Sharma is a regular at the Dhaba.

There were few takers for the allegations of corruption leveled by top BJP leaders against chief minister Virbhadra Singh. “Corruption is a non issue in Himachal Pradesh. Who would believe that Raja (as Virbhadra Singh is known) who has ancestral wealth running into multiples of crores, would indulge in corruption amounting to `5 crore or something,” said a Professor in Himachal Pradesh University who did not want to be named.

Another Congress leader added, that the problem was in the “unprofessional accountants of Singh who did a shoddy work” while filing his tax returns. They are not willing to buy the charge of BJP leaders that a Raja would indulge in such a small corruption. “People simply laugh it away,” said the Congress leader, when asked about the main election plank of BJP.

The Professor, who is a fence sitter in the politically surcharged State in the run up to elections, does not have a grudge against the BJP either. “See, Congress raised the issues of demonetisation and GST in the elections. These issues are of no consequence to the people of the State,” he said, adding that “the biggest failure of Congress remained finding issues which could find traction with the people”. The Professor said that in a relatively prosperous state, the level of expectations keeps increasing. “People keep voting out the incumbent Government as the expectations are not met. In fact, no government can ever meet all expectations and that is where they vote out one Government and bring out the other,” he added.

The Congress leaders, who claimed to have toured the State and who were managing the polls from the State party headquarters on Cart Road, said it was a “normal election” unlike the “wave election” of 2014 where BJP resoundingly won all the four parliamentary seats in the state. They kept on insisting that Modi is no longer a strong factor in Himachal Pradesh.

BJP leaders disagree. “There is no proof so far to suggest that the Modi wave is on decline. We just won a landslide in UP earlier this year and that was entirely due to Modi magic,” said a BJP leader in Hotel Combermere, the headquarters of the party during the assembly polls. “We have a triple advantage in Himachal this time-charisma of Modi, chief ministerial face of Prem Kumar Dhumal and anti incumbency,” summed up the BJP greenhorn, who claims to be well acquainted with the broader socio-political current of the state.

So, there you have it. The political trend in Himachal is slightly different and it would be difficult to see it from the prism of macro factors that determine the trend in the rest of the northern state. Local factors, local leaders and localized issues seem to dominate the broader contours and that makes the elections all the more exciting. November 13, 2017)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/anti-incumbency-may-sway-himachal-poll-results.html

Change dominant political theme this November

  

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla

As Himachal Pradesh goes to polls on Thursday to elect its government for the next five years, the battle is clearly between change offered by the BJP and status quo offered by ruling Congress. Not surprisingly, change is the dominant political theme this November in the hill state where both the two main parties have shared power one after the other for the last over three decades.

Even as anti incumbency against ruling Congress is visible on the ground, chief minister Virbhadra Singh has not lost his popularity despite being repeatedly attacked for corruption and promotion of dynastic politics.  In the upper hills, there is still reverence for royalty to some extent, particularly in the elderly men and women and also because Singh has been one of the stalwarts of the state, being a six time chief minister and being in politics since making his parliamentary debut in 1962.   

Singh says the party is fighting the polls on the government’s all round achievements in all fields be it education, health, providing water and road network and other indices of development. Singh readily cites statistics to bolster his claims and how the state has developed in successive Congress regimes. He tells his audience in his meetings how the BJP government is targeting him on small matters of income tax with multiple agencies hounding him, how vindictive the Centre is and how all his bank accounts have been sealed. “Is this the way of governance?” he asks.

His rival, Prem Kumar Dhumal enjoys similar popularity in the lower hills. Being a two-time chief minister having mass connect and popular support, the announcement of his name as the chief ministerial face of the party, triggered enthusiasm amongst the BJP cadres and even the fence sitters. The announcement by party chief Amit Shah, BJP cadres say, clinched the deal for the Lotus as it was a last minute “master stroke”. “Had the BJP gone without a name, it would have confused the cadres and supporters,” said a party veteran in Shimla.

“There is a wave of change blowing in the entire state. Gone are the days of kings and kingdoms. We are committed for a golden future of the state and have released a vision document for this. There will be no corruption, no mafia raj and effective administration for the betterment of all Himachalis,” said Dhumal. He cited the achievements of the central government and pointed out how important it was to have the same party government for faster and rapid development throughout his whirlwind campaign.

For BJP, it was the campaign strategy of carpet bombing the state with its top leaders which seemed to have gone well, particularly the floating voters who make a decision at the last moment. “Just see how much attention BJP is giving to the state. They will give similar attention after coming to power,” said Anil Bhardwaj, a young school teacher and a voter in Nadaun, near Hamirpur.

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed seven rallies in every part of the state, Congress President Sonia Gandhi was completely absent from campaigning apparently due to ill health. Party Vice President and heir apparent Rahul Gandhi of course, addressed three rallies to make for the deficit but clearly involvement of top leadership of Congress from the campaign was missing. Congress sources in Rajiv Bhawan in Shimla admitted of “meager resources” and lack of adequate interest from High Command.

Interestingly, in the 2012 assembly polls, the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had not addressed any political rally. This shows how important the elections are for BJP. Party leaders point out that for Modi and BJP leadership, winning back the hill state was a vital for the campaign of “Congress Mukt Bharat”.  Several Union Ministers and chief ministers of BJP ruled states spread in every nook and corner to spread the message of the party across while most of the senior Congress leaders only addressed press conferences in Shimla.

From Congress, 83-year old Virbhadra Singh was the star campaigner and fought the polls valiantly. Campaigning for up to 16 hours a day by helicopter and road, Raja sahib as he is known in the state, left no stone unturned. He, however, did not work and campaign seriously for a few candidates, chosen by the high command and this posed serious question marks on the unity of party rank and file. 

Though the results would be announced only on December 18, Himachal polls would be known for the high decibel campaign of BJP and muted response of Congress and voter indifference to making issues like demonetization and  GST as poll campaign. Anti incumbency would be the single biggest deciding factor in the polls.

PROMINENT CONSTITUENCIES

1. Arki: Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh is contesting against new comer Rattan Singh Pal after BJP denied ticket to two-time MLA Govind Ram Sharma. It is considered to be a safe seat for the chief minister as he did not come here after filing his nomination, except on the last day for some time. Besides several developmental schemes in the last five years here, there is an emotional connect of the voters too as the Raja Sahib has declared that this is his last elections and people want to give him a decent farewell, at least as an MLA.

2. Sujanpur: BJP chief ministerial face and two time chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal is contesting against his former protégé Rajinder Rana from Congress.  Rana, who won the seat in 2012 as an Independent, has been a friend turned foe and knows the strengths of Dhumal in specific areas and is countering them. But declaring the name of the 73 year old as the chief ministerial candidate has swung the electorate towards him. 

3. Shimla Rural: It’s a electoral politics debut for Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh’s son Vikramaditya Singh who is pitted against Pramod Sharma of BJP. The chief minister had vacated this seat for his son and had planned his succession for the last few months giving several projects in the area. But the people wanted more attention and better infrastructure from the state government.

4. Theog: In the heart of the apple belt and a traditional seat of veteran Vidya Stokes, there was a goof up and the Congress gave ticket to Deepak Rathore.  BJP has fielded Rakesh Verma while the CPIM too is giving a tough fight with the candidature of veteran communist leader Rakesh Singha. Rathore did not getting any support from the chief minister, practically  leaving the contest between the BJP and CPIM candidates.

5. Shimla city: Interesting contest between powerful Congress rebel Harish Janartha and official Congress candidate Harbhajan Singh Bhajji. Though, BJP’s Suresh Bhardwaj is expected to sail through, it’s going to be a four cornered fight with CPIM’s Sanjay Chauhan too having considerable influence amongst the hotel workers who constitute a sizeable section.

6. Mandi: With BJP fielding Congress defector Anil Sharma, son of scam tainted former Union Minister Sukh Ram, the contest has interesting overtones. Sharma was the Rural Development Minister in the outgoing Virbhadra Singh government and will fight with Congress nominee Champa Thakur, daughter of State Health Minister and senior leader Kaul Singh Thakur.

7. Nadaun: State Congress chief Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu who was continuously at loggerheads with the CM  Virbhadra Singh is locked in a battle with BJP’s Vijay Agnihotri. However, BJP rebel Lekh Raj Sharma has queered the pitch for the party with his presence. Due to this contest, Sukhu has been confined to the constituency rather than drawing strategy for the party and campaigning in other parts of the state.

8. Una: Bordering Punjab, state BJP chief Satpal Singh Satti is contesting from here against Satpal Raizada of Congress. Both are fighting each other for the second time in a row after 2012 assembly polls and this is expected to be a close contest.

 ISSUES

1. Law and Order: Gudia gang rape which rocked the state just a few months before the announcement of polls, triggered a major resentment against the government which was forced to order a CBI enquiry. BJP accused the Virbhadra Singh government of shielding the guilty while Congress countered that the case was handed over to CBI which reports to the BJP ruled Centre. But the gang rape suggested that all was not well in the hitherto the peaceful state. Murder of forest guard Hishiyar Singh, allegedly by the forest mafia too shook the faith of the people in the Congress government. This case too has been handed over to CBI and  Virbhadra Singh accused  Congress of politicization of crime in his election campaign.

2. GST and Demonetization: It’s a major theme in the election with the Congress raising the bogey of disruption of economy and BJP mocking at the Congress for being corrupt and opposing transparency. However, the people at large are hardly affected and both demonetization and GST have failed to get the traction of the electorate.

3. Import duty on foreign apples: Congress has accused BJP of neglecting the interests of apple growers by not increasing the import duty on foreign apples even though it had promised it in the 2014 elections. “Horticulture and agriculture has been completely neglected,” said former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit while campaigning.  On the other hand, BJP lists steps it has taken in successive regimes to help the apple growers of the state and has promised more.

4. Employment generation and regularization of employees: Congress says that there has been an unprecedented employment generation and regularization of contract employees in  the five-year tenure of Virbhadra Singh  and insist that this is their USP in this election.  The BJP does not deny this but its chief ministerial face Prem Kumar Dhumal says when they come to power, they will regularize 35,000 employees.

5. Monkey menace: In several parts of the state, monkeys have devastated local economies, particularly affecting the small farmers. Both BJP and Congress are accusing each other of not doing enough and promising to control it. Monkeys have been declared as vermin in the state but still dud to religious feelings, culling is hardly an option. Now both parties are saying they will set up more sterilization centres to check the monkey population

6. Expansion of Tourism: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set the ball rolling by saying that the state is a top destination in the world but the potential has not been developed. He has promised better road, rail and air network to exploit tourism potential which would be facilitated by the same party government in both Centre and the state. The promise has found traction in the state where a large number of population depends on income from tourism. Congress government is on defensive as they had overturned several tourism projects of the previous BJP government (2007 to 2012) of Dhumal.  (November 9, 2017)

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