Battle in the Gangetic belt of UP and Bihar

  

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

As the battle for 2014 unfolds, the bitterest battle would perhaps be fought in the Gangetic belt of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The prevalent electoral mood in these States seems to be similar to what existed in the post Babri Masjid demolition days — combination of anti-incumbency and polarised voters, something which helped catapult BJP to power then.

At the grassroots level, polarisation is taking place gradually but surely ahead of the polls. Ask any politician who moves about in his constituency in these two States and they will tell you that polarisation is indeed there and this is taking place after a decade-and-a-half.

Communal trouble in parts of north and central Bihar early this year, large-scale violence in Muzaffarnagar in Uttar Pradesh and serial bomb blasts in Patna at the time of Narendra Modi’s rally may be the prime factors for increased polarisation. Pollsters would say that when polarisation takes place, issues of development or non- development, governance, performance and even caste identity, which is a hallmark of the two States, takes a backseat. The main political parties of UP and Bihar —Congress, Samajwadi Party, BSP, JD(U) and RJD — would argue that BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi himself is a polarising figure given his track record in Gujarat and this was bound to happen. But I see this differently. Take for example Uttar Pradesh, which was first ruled by BSP for five years and then by the Samajwadi Party for the last one-and-a-half years. Ask even the staunchest of SP supporter what the party has done after promising so much when Akhilesh Yadav became Chief Minister and they would stare at you blankly, not knowing what to say. Known for firing at the Kar Sewaks in the heydays of the Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid dispute, the same Samajwadi Party simply failed to do anything to check raging communal violence in Muzaffarnagar. Can the Government answer a simple question as to what did the administration do when large-scale violence was taking place and people from both communities were being killed?

In fact, the SP Government failed not once but repeatedly. So much so that violence in Muzaffarnagar has taken a cyclic form and taking place every now and then, even when this column was being written. I was talking to a friend who happens to be a Muslim, now settled in the United States as a Law academic. He argued that failure of the State Government was “deliberate” so that Muslims in rest of Uttar Pradesh would be gripped by fear psychosis and vote for the ruling party in the Lok Sabha polls so that its chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has some chance of putting his hat in the ring when there is a hung House next year and a motley bunch of the so called Third Front comes into the picture. I am not sure about the fairness of the argument but definitely surprised how communal violence can still take place in this era and cannot be controlled when battalions of paramilitary forces and Army can be moved anywhere in the country within two-three hours. If a major communal violence does not lead to polarisation, then what else will in a State which is far away from 100 per cent literacy? In such a polarised situation, obviously the BJP would benefit. More so, as Modi is the Prime Ministerial candidate and Amit Shah is the General Secretary in-charge of the biggest State.

Besides polarisation, what is working in favour of BJP in UP is the poor performance of three parties — Congress, BSP and SP — over the last decade or so. People of UP gave Congress over one-fourth of the seats in 2009 polls but they didn’t see anything positive happening to them or for that matter in the country. They trusted BSP for five years, gave it reasonable seats in Lok Sabha polls as well but Mayawati continued with the decades-old politics of patronage and money. When SP showed hope in the form of the young Akhilesh Yadav in 2012, they again voted for him, only to be betrayed as the Government proved to be worse than that its predecessor BSP. So here, the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor could be working for BJP. It remains the only party which has not been tried-and-tested for the last 10 years. Fed up with the style of Congress, BSP and SP, the floating votes and the new voters could be considering it even if they have nothing to do with polarisation and are least affected by it.

In Bihar after the JD(U) broke up its 17-year-old alliance with BJP, communal trouble took place in Bettiah and in Nawada in August this year. But unlike the SP Government in UP, the Nitish Kumar Government checked these with an iron hand and did not allow the situation to flare up. Kumar, however, bungled subsequently when his administration and security establishment did not make foolproof arrangement for Modi’s Hunkar Rally in Patna’s Gandhi Maidan. The serial bomb blasts which killed Modi’s supporters vitiated the atmosphere and now has led to polarisation. What made matters worse and further polarised the situation was the Asthi Kalash Yatra of the BJP. Modi again came back to Bihar to meet the victims of the blast and undoubtedly, the entire sequence of events from the rally, to the blasts, the Asthi Kalash Yatra and Modi’s visit led to division on communal lines. Only the poll results would show to what extent this has taken place but the events and circumstances point to it.

Apart from the polarising factors in Bihar, politics there has taken a U-turn in recent months. The RJD chief Lalu Prasad is back in jail as a convict in the fodder scam and his Muslim-Yadav combine, assiduously built for over two decades, is on the verge of collapse. While Muslims have started the process of shifting to JD(U), a section of the Yadavs are looking for new political opportunity outside RJD, in BJP. Moreover, after the end of JD(U)-BJP alliance, the Nitish Kumar-led party is now bereft of a solid support base in terms of caste or social dominance. So, 2014 would be, in a way a churning of the political process in Bihar where caste, religion, social base and a host of micro factors would all play a role to decide the winner. In such a situation, polarisation helps and this is what goes in favour of the BJP at this juncture. With UP and Bihar sending 120 members to the Lok Sabha and polarisation taking place just ahead of polls, besides the shoddy performance of the two State Governments and the rival contenders over the months and years, BJP is smiling. Some of the party leaders with whom I spoke to are pegging the figure at 60 in both the States. But they argue that with still a few months to go for the polls, the figures could go up. The SP, BSP, JD(U) and RJD vehemently deny any such formulation and the surge of BJP. But what they agree with the BJP is the scenario of Congress biting the dust in UP and being reduced to 3-4 seats from 22 it has in the present Lok Sabha and completely wiped out in Bihar if it does not enter into any alliance. (November 11, 2013) 

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BJP must respond to regional aspirations ahead of 2014

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

National Democratic Front (NDA) is alive and kicking. While the BJP is making rapid strides to bid for power in 2014, there was always a question mark on the allies which the NDA would have in the run-up to the polls and in the post poll arithmetic.

But the rally of Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Kurukshetra last week has allayed apprehensions of the regional parties about the big brotherly approach of BJP towards them. The party sent one of its Vice Presidents — Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi — to cement ties with the regional outfit even though no one expected it nor was it known in advance. The rally and unexpected participation of BJP was significant as it is more or less clear at this juncture that if the saffron party has the maximum support amongst the regional parties and gets close to 200 seats only then it would get the Prime Minister’s chair post 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Some of the major constituents of NDA during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s regime attended the rally to mark the birth centenary of Third Front veteran and former Deputy Prime Minister Chaudhary Devi Lal. Though it was organised by the INLD in the absence of jailed Om Prakash Chautala and his son Ajay Chautala, it gave enough indications that if BJP got close to power, it would not lack the support of new allies even if they do not enter into a pre-poll alliance.

The BJP and INLD parted ways in Haryana in 2009 on a bitter note before the Assembly polls. Ironically, even as they refused to stitch an alliance, there was hardly any major contentious issue except the perception of leaders of either parties on seat sharing and doubts about strength of each other in some constituencies. This proved to be political suicide for both the parties as Congress came to power again in the state despite getting only 40 of the 90 seats in the Assembly. Results indicated that had INLD and BJP fought together, they would have easily come to power in the State.

Now BJP has an alliance with Haryana Janhit Congress led by Kuldeep Bishnoi, a political marriage bereft of popular support, which has failed to take off on the ground. But after the Kurukshetra rally, leaders of BJP have given enough hints that even if a pre poll alliance does not take place with INLD, the Chautala led party would give unconditional support to NDA with whatever number it gets. Already Abhay Chautala, running the show in the absence of his jailed father and brother, has categorically said that his party would support Narendra Modi unconditionally. Moreover, Haryana Assembly elections are slated in November 2014 after the Lok Sabha polls and doors would be open for a three party grand Opposition alliance comprising of HJC, INLD and BJP — a formation which is bound to give sleepless nights to the ruling Congress.

In the rally, NDA veteran and Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal gave a clarion call for unity of all parties opposed to the Congress. At present, Akali Dal in Punjab and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra remain the only allies of NDA who have never parted ways with BJP and always supported it come what may. Badal, the Akali Dal patron who had strong bond not only with Chaudhary Devi Lal but also his son Om Prakash Chautala, harped on the theme of unity against the Congress. Not surprisingly, Telugu Desam Party, Asom Gana Parishad and RPI too were represented in the rally, indicating that political dynamics keeps changing and there could be fresh realignment of political forces before or after 2014 polls.

In Haryana, it is almost certain that BJP will not tie up with INLD in the Lok Sabha polls as the party has been tainted following the conviction of both the Chautalas in a corruption case pertaining to recruitment. Congress would undoubtedly leave no stone unturned to target BJP if an alliance comes through with INLD. Also, it will negate the charges of BJP against Congress on a series of scams in the UPA-II regime. But the message of Kurukshetra is different and has gone loud and wide — for BJP no party is untouchable against the Congress.

Ahead of the 2014 battle, this message would perhaps help BJP and NDA in the northern region, an area where it is quite weak and is heavily dependent on allies. The Northern States, comprising Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, UT of Chandigarh and Jammu and Kashmir has 34 seats and proved to be the nemesis for the NDA in the 2004 polls. Out of 34 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP on its own did badly due to its limited presence in the area getting merely 4 seats while along with Akali Dal, its alliance partner in Punjab, it got 8 seats in the entire region. This is less than 25 per cent and would not help its cause in the battle ahead.

In 2009, Congress swept the polls in Haryana getting 9 of the 10 seats and in Jammu and Kashmir with all the 6 seats in its kitty along with National Conference. Even in Punjab, Congress did well getting 8 of the 13 seats. An impressive performance in the region helped it form Government in the centre.

Except in Himachal Pradesh where it has always been a direct contest between BJP and Congress, in the rest of the states, the saffron party would have to depend on allies to get respectable numbers in 2014. The significance of Kurukshetra lies here with the perception that BJP has shed the big brotherly approach. If NDA improves its tally in Punjab from the present 5, retains at least half of the 4 seats in Himachal Pradesh, manages to get five of the 10 seats in Haryana with a zero base at this point, it would significantly add to its kitty.

In Jammu and Kashmir, National Conference would not switch over to the NDA as it is in alliance with Congress in the State Assembly but being responsive to the sensitivities of the Farooq and Omar Abdullah led party would help NDA in the long run and in  netting more allies when it reaches the crunch situation. Being responsive to allies and regional parties would help BJP get the grand post poll alliance, which was once the hallmark of the Vajpayee regime. Trinamool Congress, AIADMK, Biju Janata Dal, Telugu Desam Party, Telangana Rashtra Samiti, YSR Congress, INLD, Rashtriya Lok Dal, MNS in Maharashtra, possibly BSP in Uttar Pradesh and the regional parties of North East could be the hunting ground for the BJP. Meeting regional aspirations and appropriate response would be the key here. (November 5, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/kuru-bjp-must-respond-to-regional-aspirations-ahead-of-2014-polls.html

DUSSEHRA means slaying of demonic qualities

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

A belated Dussehra, Durga Puja and Vijaya Dashmi greetings. Though this column was written on the day of the festival, it obviously appears the day after being written, so belated.

As I sat on computer to write this column after watching Ravana going down in flames amid bursting of crackers like every year, I was forced to introspect and think afresh. Three decades ago, when I was a kid, I had asked a learned person, my teacher, “Why do we burn Ravana every year?” His reply was simple, which still remains the standard answer to the query. “Ravana symbolises evil”. Since time immemorial, every year, the day is celebrated as the triumph of good over evil.

Evil… he indeed was. Ravana kidnapped Lord Rama’s wife Sita by deceit and forcibly took her to Lanka. But there are different interpretations why he did so. A section of the scholars say that Sita was kidnapped to take revenge from Rama’s brother Laxman who sliced his sister Suparnakha’s nose. Ravana kept the kidnapped Sita in forceful confinement in Ashok Vatika but never ever touched her. There is another interpretation that Ravana wanted to win Sita over and had kidnapped her. Whatever, the interpretation and reasons, obviously no kidnapping is acceptable in any society. But the point is whether the offence is so despicable and unheard of in Indian society to be termed as an evil. 

There are people roaming around with much more serious crime. Why don’t we burn their effigies as well along with Ravana? As compared to these modern days “Ravanas”, the actual Ravana of Ramayana looks like a saint. Kidnapping of course is a serious offence. But what about the incidents of gang-rapes and murders taking place with alarming regularity? Isn’t it time we burnt the effigies of the Delhi gang-rapists and other rapists either languishing in jails or roaming scot free? Isn’t crime much more serious that what Ravana did happening with alarming regularity in and around us?

The Lanka king whose effigy is burnt with much fanfare was also accused of being arrogant. Well, if that is the criteria of terming someone evil, then I am afraid there is an evil lurking in most of the human beings and we need to cleanse ourselves from arrogance and anger.  Then, Ravana was extremely egoist. Again, don’t we all suffer from this? most of us are unable to let go of ego even if it remains a stumbling block for personal development. Ravana usurped the kingdom of his brother Kuber. But don’t we see politicians out of power plotting to dethrone those in power all the time by all means under their command—fair or foul?

Watching a popular television serial recently, I learnt a lesson — a lesson which is now deeply ingrained in me. The protagonist in the serial donates a hefty amount as donation for the local Ramleela management committee and gets the honour of shooting the arrows which would eventually burn the demon king of Lanka. The protagonist is in a joyful mood and waiting for the D-Day as he had emerged as the hero of his colony, given the opportunity to shoot arrows at the effigy of Ravana. But he had a sleepless night a day before Dussehra. Ravana appears in his dream and asks him bluntly, why was he so excited to shoot arrows on the effigy the next day? “Because you have evil qualities,” replies the protagonist. “But do you have qualities like Lord Rama to shoot arrows at me?” asks Ravana in the dream of the protagonist. The poor fellow has no answers and awakens in sweat as he himself is trying to overcome anger, aggression, ego, possessiveness, etc.

As I watch politicians firing symbolic arrows at the effigy of Ravana in the live evening television news, the protagonist of the serial comes in mind. In Delhi, one finds politicians of all hues trying to be the chief guest at the final day of Ramleela when the effigy of the demon king is burnt.

This is not limited to Delhi alone but even in Chandigarh, Dehradun, Shimla and smaller district and mofussil places. In the bigger events, you find the big politicians and at the colony level, you find local and aspiring politicians. People should now ask them bluntly, “You are welcome to shoot the arrows, but first answer one question honestly.  Can you tell us if you do not have the evil qualities which Ravana had — anger, aggression, ego, possessiveness, lust for power and authority?” A majority of them would go away if they are honest to themselves.

The story of the protagonist on TV serial was taken from the life of Jesus Christ. A woman, caught committing adultery, was brought before Christ. Those who brought her to the Christ said the punishment was stoning till death. “Whichever one of you has committed no sin may throw the first stone at her,” was the reply of Jesus. When the crowd heard this, they all left, one by one, the older ones first.

Lord Rama had more qualities than Ravana and that entitled him to slay the demonic qualities of the Lankan king. Obviously the slaying is of demonic qualities of a person and not the person himself. As a person, Ravana had a great lineage, performed intense tapasya to please Brahma and Lord Shiva, was an exemplary scholar, a very good ruler, an accomplished Veena player said to have composed the hymn known as Shiva Tandava Stotra. Above all, he was one of the greatest devotees of Lord Shiva.

Some scholars even say that his description as a ten-headed person is a reference to him possessing a very thorough knowledge over the four Vedas and six Upanishads, which made him as powerful as 10 scholars. But his evil qualities did him in. Though his skills far outweighed his negative qualities, still the message is that if you possess even a single quality which is evil in nature, this would lead to your downfall. If this could happen to a person of tremendous qualities like Ravana, it could happen to anyone else. According to my understanding, this is perhaps the greatest lesson from the Lanka Kand of Ramayana. (October 14, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/dussehra-means-slaying-of-demonic-qualities.html

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Congress lacks a big idea ahead of 2014

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

The poll bugle has been sounded and countdown to the big festival of democracy has begun. First it would be a semi-final in December before the big game changer final in April-May next year.

Five States would go to polls beginning next month and December 8 would see new Governments in Rajasthan, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. More than that December 8 would prove to be a watershed in Indian politics and likely to give a clear indication as to which way the political wind is blowing and who will assume power in Delhi in May next year.

There are 630 Assembly seats in the five States which go to polls and the sample size of voters would be over 11.5 crore in these States. Clearly, the results would show how the two parties — the BJP and the Congress are placed in the Hindi heartland and who would rule from Delhi in May 2014. If we leave out Mizoram, which may not have a national impact, together these four States send 72 members to Lok Sabha. In 2009, the Congress had a distinct edge, getting 41 members elected from these States while the BJP had to be content with only 29 seats. Percentage wise, the size of Congress victory and its margin over BJP in these four States was more or less similar to the one it had at the national-level where it formed the Government. If the BJP manages to reverse this trend this time round, first in Assembly polls and later Lok Sabha polls, obviously sun would shine much brighter on it.

Though there was speculation in political circles that Lok Sabha elections could be advanced to be held along with Assembly elections, it seems the Manmohan Singh-led UPA Government and Congress have other ideas and now it would be held as per schedule.

Elections may be six months away but the goalpost is changing at a much rapid pace stunning the political parties. The issues are changing so rapidly that in the fast changing political environment, parties are redrawing their strategy every now and then.

The Congress was badly bruised when party vice-president Rahul Gandhi rebuked Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Cabinet on the Ordinance on convicted legislators. Soon after, announcement of Telangana triggered a storm in united Andhra Pradesh with every party opposed to the bifurcation of the State except the TRS in the Telangana region and Congress High Command in New Delhi. Will Rahul intervene again and rebuke the Prime Minister and his Cabinet again for the Telangana announcement? Or was he kept on board when the decision was taken? No one for sure knows the opinion of Gandhi and unless he barges in a Press conference of one of his party’s leaders, no would know it.

But whatever the opinion of Rahul on Telangana, what is sure is that the Congress will lose badly in Andhra Pradesh and could be decimated in the Seema-Andhra region though it might get a couple of seats in Telangana. Remember, this was the State, which catapulted the Congress to power in a big way in 2009 by sending 33 members to the Lok Sabha. Even the Congress sympathisers now say that the way Telangana issue was handled the figure could now be anything between 0-2 in the 2014 polls.

If the handling of Telangana left a lot to be desired so did the Ordinance on convicted leaders. As the battle of 2014 is a game of winning more and more allies in UPA and NDA, the Congress seems to have lost its edge after the fiasco on the Ordinance. Though, Rahul’s intervention would help cleanse politics, old allies are now wary of the party and most of its allies feel that the Congress does not need them anymore. Former Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav would vouch for the fact that the Congress would not even think twice before dumping a long-term ally. Potential allies would see the fate of jailed Lalu Prasad and the fiasco of the Ordinance and simply decide not to do business with the Congress.

The fate of DMK leaders too is fresh in the memory of potential Congress allies. Former Telecom Minister A Raja spent over a year in jail in the spectrum allocation scam and even party supremo M Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi had to spend a long-term in Tihar Jail. A leader of RJD said that the Congress picks and chooses whom to send to jail and whom to protect. “Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati were protected by the same CBI which sent Raja, Kanimozhi and Lalu to jail. You can never bank on the Congress for support in need,” said the senior RJD leader.

A section of the RJD believes that the Congress under Rahul Gandhi would force the party to sympathetically consider the BJP as a “friendlier” party and the Congress as “hostile”. Though, the core vote bank of the RJD is Yadav-Muslim combine, if forced to a corner, it may approach the BJP if Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) goes for an alliance with the Congress. The BJP would have nothing to do with the RJD, the very thought in a section of the RJD of a patch-up with its old enemy suggests the changing equations and how possibilities open up in politics.

The Congress may have suffered in terms of alliances but there is a silver lining in the biggest State of Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. There are indications that the party could have a pre-poll alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party. If that happens and the trend of 2009 continues in the backdrop of declining popularity of the Samajwadi Party, there could be some major gains for the Congress.

In Bihar, Congress-JD(U) alliance, if indeed it materialises, would again help the party get respectable numbers. But beyond these two distinct possibilities, the Congress has nothing in terms of alliances. All its allies consider it unreliable and have deserted it. The DMK and the Trinamool Congress, its biggest allies in 2009, are no longer there in 2014.  

But what perhaps could be the greatest handicap of the party in the 5-6 months in the run up to the 2014 polls, is the lack of one big idea which could catapult it to power for the third time in a row.  I talked to a few Congress leaders about any big idea with which it would go into the polls in 2014 and I could only hear about various laws on “Right”. These were Right to Food, Right to Education, right to get cash in bank accounts etc. When I pose the same question to the people with whom I interact, they too consider these as their “Right” but do not associate Congress with it.

Poor people are no longer satisfied with food or obsessed how and from where their next meal would come from. That is a matter of right. Now they want education for their children, health for their elders and employment for the youth. They now have aspirations and are no longer content with 100 days of employment under MGNREGA. They want the luxuries of modern life-FM radio sets, colour TV, decent clothes, economic avenues and trickling down of benefits of modernisation. It is here where the Congress has failed them. The party has no big idea on economics and growth. It was time the party came out with a magic wand in the remaining tenure otherwise the writing is there on the wall.  (October 7, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/congress-lacks-a-big-idea-ahead-of-2014.html

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Veto power of Rahul Gandhi

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA 

Who has a bigger stature in Congress and the Government — Prime Minister Manmohan Singh or Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi? The worst kept secret is now out. The entire world now knows that Gandhi not only has the veto power in the party but also the Government.

What the entire world now also knows for sure is that the first family of the Congress always had this power but they made everyone believe that executive power had been delegated to the Prime Minister. The façade that executive leadership vests with the Prime Minister had been assiduously built for public consumption in the last almost 10 years. But the mask fell down in one blow as Rahul dashed to the Press Club of India in New Delhi in a pre planned move to disassociate himself from the Ordinance on convicted leaders.

Senior leaders and those who know the functioning of the Congress knew that the first family always had veto power pertaining to anything in Government and the party. After party Chief Sonia Gandhi started keeping unwell, it was left to Rahul to exercise this veto power first in the formation of the Cabinet some time ago, then a reshuffle in the organisation and now to derail the Ordinance. He used it to great effect to make Manmohan Singh and his Cabinet colleagues realise that he calls the shots not the Cabinet.

Even if the Prime Minister sticks to the chair and does not resign after this, he has been shown his place and told in no uncertain terms as to who is the boss. Whatever Rahul or Sonia Gandhi tell the PM in their letters and phone calls and try to console him after public humiliation, the message has gone.  In the remaining term, he will have to seek the advice of Rahul for anything and everything he does because another round of humiliation or reprimand would severely erode whatever little credibility he has as a Prime Minister.

But whatever the critics of Rahul and even the status quoists in his own party say, for the first time the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty has taken a pro active stand ever since he came into politics. For the first time, Gandhi respected public opinion on an issue of wide importance. So far, his entire politics was based on NGO style operation-championing the cause of dalit one day, tribal the other and without being serious to either of the two. Rahul has not spoken anything on the deteriorating economy, international relations, political issues facing the country, on Telengana or even the victory of Indian cricket team in a bilateral series.

For that matter, after becoming Vice President of the party when a bigger role was expected, he has not spoken anything of significance which the voters expect from the prime ministerial candidate of Congress. His main competitor Narendra Modi speaks on everything under the sun every other day and the entire world knows what is good or bad about him. Now that Rahul has made a beginning by terming the Ordinance as a “nonsense” that “deserved to be torn up and thrown out”, people would expect more from the leader who has practically been anointed as the prime ministerial candidate by Congress. 

BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi may have lashed out at Rahul on Sunday in his rally in New Delhi for undermining the authority of the Prime Minister but remember as this was the first time the Congress Vice President took a stand on an issue, he should be excused. The authority of the Prime Minister in any case was always undermined in the Congress regime of this century where loyalty and lack of political base was the criteria for the top job of the country.  A hue and cry is being made as this was the first time people saw the undermining of the democratic institutions-PM and the Cabinet-taking place in public domain. 

However, Gandhi’s political immaturity is apparent when he chose the wrong place and time to debunk the Ordinance as “nonsense”. He could have barged into the meeting of the Congress Core Group which took the decision to bring in an Ordinance to help the convicted leaders to help the Government. He could have picked up the telephone and called the Prime Minister or the Law Minister and told them what a nonsense it was. But alas he chose a press conference for it.

What has happened now is that the entire system—Congress as well as the Government is demoralised.  They do not know where to hide their face. As this has come in the run up to the 2014 polls, the embarrassment is all the more serious. Ask Cabinet Ministers Kapil Sibal, P Chidambaram and Manish Tewari along with a battery of spokespersons the party has about the latest stand of Rahul and all they will offer now is a sheepish smile. All of them defended the Ordinance before Rahul voiced his opinion on it.

In fact, when Congress media in-charge Ajay Maken was defending the Ordinance, Rahul barged in and termed it “nonsense”. No mediaperson would now believe Maken when he speaks on party’s stand on various issues and they will invariably ask him whether this was the line of Rahul or not. Similarly, whenever the Cabinet passes a Bill or approves an Ordinance, people would invariably ask whether it has the stamp of Rahul or not. They will also tell the Government, “be serious, first get Rahul’s approval and only then bring an Ordinance or a Law”.

My point is different. When you are all powerful and have the veto power not only in Congress but the Government as well, why pretend to be an outsider? Why behave like a kid who does not want to shoulder responsibility? Why not remove Manmohan Singh straight away and become the Prime Minister so that the next General Elections are fought under your leadership?

These are the questions which Rahul should consider in the next couple of weeks as the battle for 2014 is getting hot. (September 30, 2013)

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/veto-power-of-rahul-gandhi.html

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Economics versus Politics: Politics wins

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Politics and Economics are intrinsically linked in our country and one affects the other. That perhaps explains why Indian economy is going downhill like a vehicle whose brakes have failed. The driver of such a vehicle has no control on the machine even if he tries. Something similar is happening to the economy and the driver (Government) has lost all control on it and it is a free fall.

National Food Security Bill was passed by the Lok Sabha and the poor of the country who are a staggering two thirds of the population would get coarse crops, wheat and rice for Rs 1, Rs 2 and Rs 3 per kg. I do not have any objection to such populist schemes provided you have resources and the economy is robust with all indicators in the positive. But the point is has the Government got enough resources to fund the scheme or has it ever thought of the implications such schemes entail in the long term. For me, the case of the Government is like that of a poor person who does not know from where his next meal would come but has offered someone else a wholesome meal.

Then has anyone thought that when one can get a meal practically for free under the Food Security Bill, will there be any incentive left to work and contribute to national growth. You already have NREGA or assured income per year where no productive work is done, except digging ponds and filling them up but wages are paid from the tax payer”s money. Now, you have food security and all incentive to work for your bread and rice is gone. You need not do anything, simply sit at home most of the time, get NREGA wages for 100 days or 150 days in a year depending on the State you live in and go to the nearby PDS or earmarked shop to purchase coarse crop, wheat or rice for Rs 1, Rs 2 and Rs 3 per kg. Will the nation benefit from such a scheme in the long run when two thirds of the population would live in the earnings of the one third perpetually?

I can understand the logic and argument of both the ruling party and the Opposition if such schemes are meant only for physically challenged people, those suffering from some ailment or those above 60 years of age. The State should have a mechanism in place for them. But that is not the case here.  To me, a blanket Act without any checks and balances is perhaps the greatest flaw of this legislation. Almost 80 crore people will get benefits with the proposed law though its efficacy will be known only months after it is fully implemented.

With such schemes, you only ensure that no one has any incentive left for work. The able bodied people, who can work for the growth of the country and for strengthening its economy, have the lucrative option of not doing anything except while away their time. Under several Government schemes, poor get free houses; they get assured employment under NREGA without working, free treatment and medicines in government hospitals and now free food. What would be next? Twenty meters of clothes each year for all those who qualify under the Right to Food Act!

NREGA perhaps explains the acute shortage of labour all over the country in small manufacturing units and organised agriculture. Even if the workers are paid Rs 10,000 a month, they prefer not to work in a far away city as without working and staying at home, the Government largesse would help their primary concern of roti and rice.

Recently, I went to Bihar and found that the State which once had surplus labour and where one could easily find workers for agricultural fields now has an acute shortage. It is not that the population of the State is declining, but Government schemes, both of the Centre and the State, have ensured that sitting in the thatched hut and doing nothing, is more in vogue than looking for a job, working in the fields and raising the standards of the family.

When in Bihar, I found that the Nitish Kumar Government even has a scheme which offers radio sets free of cost to a section of the people, depending on their caste. This scheme defied all logic except the fact that when you need not work and get food, keep listening to songs on radio to pass your time. I would not be surprised if the scheme is upgraded by the Bihar Government and the BPL families get a colour TV set with a satellite connection and also a battery to watch TV as there is hardly any electricity in rural Bihar.

Simple economics tells you that first you have to generate income and only then it can be distributed. By all means give to the have-nots but for that first you have to generate resources and income. If you don”t have income, how can you give? Country”s first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released on Friday by the government reported a fall in economic growth for the April-June quarter of the current year at 4.4 per cent as against 5.4 per cent in the same quarter in the previous fiscal. There is not a single sector which is buoyant. Manufacturing and mining sectors are staring at negative growth for the last several months. There is recession in all industries. Employment figures are falling. The Rupee is sinking, there is inflation all around, prices of petroleum products are increasing almost every fortnight, investments are not coming and the Prime Minister has thrown his hands in despair. For, how long can you milk the service classes and the industries with a host of taxes? Rob Peter to pay Paul! Or in an Indian context rob Anil to pay Sunil!

There is a parallel to what is happening today to the late 1980s when the Soviet Union collapsed. The collapse of the once mighty Soviet Union was more due to economics of a communist regime where everything from food to Vodka was supposed to be free of cost and you got a subsistence allowance even when you did not work.  Soviet Union was offering schemes similar to Food Security and NREGA though the names were obviously different. You could get your bread and butter there without working and this cannot be sustained forever. I am not saying the situation in the country is that bad but history teaches us lessons and we should be eager students to learn from the mistakes which others did. Do not try to import the communist economic model which failed miserably in Soviet Union and several other countries.

Now, you have another so called “game changer”- the Land Acquisition Bill. I don”t know how many industries would come forward to set up shop in the country when they won”t be able to even purchase land from the farmers. Even if they try, the lands would be so expensive that they will prefer to shift to China, Bangladesh or some other country in Africa and Latin America where they do not have the Land Acquisition Act and can easily get the requisite land they need to set up manufacturing units.

In a democracy, obviously getting in power is crucial and whoever is in politics would like his or her place under the sun. Right to Food and the Land acquisition legislations clearly are aimed at this. But here, there is a mismatch between the political aspirations of the ruling Congress-led UPA and the ground realities. Political aspirations are overriding economic realities of the country and there lies the danger. (September 2, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/economics-versus-politics--politics-wins.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/economics-versus-politics-politics-wins.html

Battlelines drawn within Congress

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

BJP may have its share of inner party tussle and one upmanship but Congress clearly has the edge when it comes to leaders exchanging blows in public, physically as well as through their statements.

The latest came on the same day last week in the two neighboring States of Punjab and Haryana. In Yamunanagar, supporters of Union Minister Selja and loyalists of Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda not only abused each other but also exchanged blows. For a long time, Selja has been in the forefront of a faction in the party which is against Hooda and alleging discrimination in developmental work.  In Punjab, former Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh raised a banner of revolt against PCC President Partap Singh Bajwa questioning his style of functioning and announcement of names for polls through a press statement. After his removal as the State Congress President, Capt Amarinder has used all tricks in his sleeve to destabilise Bajwa, going to the extent of writing letters to prove the alleged links of his successor even with militants and smugglers. 

In both Punjab and Haryana it is not uncommon to find workers hurling shoes, abuses, sticks and anything that can be used as a missile on each other in their internal meetings. The presence of senior leaders is never a deterrent, rather a motivation to target each other. The hooligans in such meetings want to get noticed by those for whom they are raising their voice, fists and lathis and invariably get rewarded in the long term when their boss gets a good position in the Government.  In Punjab, some party meetings have turned into mini battlefields with the workers treating each other to choicest of Punjabi abuses and hurling anything they find handy at each other with a zeal which would leave people wondering if they belong to the same party.

A few years ago, I was covering a Congress rally at Gohana (Sonepat) in Haryana. At that time a fierce turf war was being fought between the late Bhajan Lal, who was in Congress then and Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who was trying to challenge him as the undisputed leader of the Haryana Congress. In the presence of central leaders, Hooda supporters shouted down Bhajan Lal and the situation could have taken an ugly turn had it not been for the presence of senior AICC functionaries. Some of the Hooda supporters were even armed with black flags which they waived the moment Bhajan Lal disembarked from his vehicle. This was as if an “enemy” of the Congress had made a sudden appearance. The fact that Bhajan Lal had been at the helm of affairs in the state for over a decade was completely lost to the protesting workers.

Now when Hooda has firmly established himself as the most acceptable face of the Congress at the State level, his supporters no longer indulge in such wanton acts. However, rival factions still fight it out for turf space at local meetings in the presence of the Chief Minister. When Chaudhary Birender Singh organized a rally in Jind on August 20, Chief Minister Hooda absented himself though AICC General Secretaries Shakeel Ahmed and Digvijay Singh participated. If Hooda had participated, Birender supporters would have obviously heckled him. Similarly, both Selja and Birender always avoid any official function of Hooda to prevent it becoming a mini battle field between the supporters of each other.

Ask the Congress leaders about such reckless acts on the part of the workers and they would say that as long as long as you raise the slogans of ‘Sonia Gandhi Zindabad’ and Rahul Gandhi Zindabad’ and remain loyal to the first family of the party, no one minds such a behavior. Severe infighting and turf battle is not limited to Punjab and Haryana. In the national Capital, Delhi, Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit is battling PCC President JP Aggarwal as well as AICC General Secretary Ajay Maken, her under study turned bête noire. In fact, in the last almost 15 years of Dikshit’s tenure, the PCC Presidents always remained against her whoever it was—Ram Babu Sharma, Chaudhary Prem Singh or Subhash Chopra.

The battlelines within the Congress are drawn everywhere, wherever you go in India. In Himachal Pradesh, no one is openly speaking against Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh fearing reprisals but PCC chief Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu and two ministers—GS Bali and Thakur Kaul Singh are against the style of functioning of the Chief Minister. They are planning their next move deftly. Haryana has Selja, Birender Singh and Gurgaon MP Rao Inderjit lined up against Hooda.  In Chhattisgarh , it is PCC President Charandas Mahant versus former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi. In Madhya Pradesh, the internal fight is three fold with Jyotiraditya Scindia versus Kamal Nath versus Digvijay Singh.

In Tamil Nadu again there are three players pitched against each other for turf war—Jayanthi Natarajan GK Wasan and P Chidambaram.  How can Kerala be behind as there are factions of Oommen Chandy and Ramesh Chennithala in the southern State. In Uttar Pradesh, there is hardly anything to fight for except the crumbs. But none of the central leaders from the state share a rapport and can sit together to formulate a winning strategy for the state with Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi. In Bihar, Congress does not see itself in power for the next two decades and so there is little question of fighting each other but in neighboring Jharkhand, a bitter war is being fought amongst the leaders for ministerial berths and positions in government and they are not leaving any opportunity to run each other down. 

The Congress Vice President has already issued warning and instructions to all leaders not to indulge in factional fights but no one is listening. All of them are hailing Sonia and Rahul but that is only to justify their political moves. All of them have their own little turfs to protect and the party comes second. A senior leader of the party had an interesting take on the infighting in Congress. He told me that when there are 20 leaders in a State, one becomes the PCC President and 19 start working against him and seek his removal. When the PCC President is finally removed and one from the group of 19 is given the charge, the leader who has been removed now joins the group of 19 and starts working against the new incumbent. “This is a typical Congress tradition,” the leader summed up. (August 26, 2013) 

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-08-26-20005.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/battlelines-drawn-within-congress.html

Bihar becomes a quagmire of political possibilities

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Mahatma Gandhi started his experiments of mass mobilisation from Champaran, 96 years ago in 1917. As Champaran and Bihar prepare to celebrate the centenary of the mass movement against the British Indigo planters and the setting up of the Bhitiharwa Ashram in the district, Congress sits on the sidelines wondering what to do to regain its lost base in the State.

It has been almost a quarter of century when Congress lost its dominant political space to resurgent OBC politics of the State. A visit to the district Congress office in the heart of the small town of Bettiah, the headquarters of West Champaran district, illustrates the position of Congress in the region and the State.

The district headquarters of the 127-year-old party hardly hosted any function or had any visitors for the last several years. The wooden doors and even its frames have been removed from most of the rooms over a period of time by the miscreants and the dilapidated building in a sprawling complex could fall anytime. There is no chair or table anywhere and no one visits the place. Even the children of the nearby areas do not play in the compound which has no boundary wall, fearing that this could be a haunted place. Stray buffaloes and pigs make merry in the pools of water in the monsoons.

A day before Independence Day this year, the sprawling 2-acre complex in the heart of the town, was inundated in knee-deep water till someone realised late in the afternoon that the national flag had to be unfurled the next day. A cut was hurriedly made to ensure that the rain water collected in the complex could be drained out. On Independence Day, merely three people turned out for the flag hoisting ceremony and the senior most amongst them, an 81-year old, was given the honour of unfurling the Tricolor. After doing the honours, the senior citizens simply walked to their houses in the vicinity. They were doing the ritual for the last few years only out of habit and the sentiments attached to Independence Day. They swore by the name of Mahatma Gandhi but none of them believed in policies and programmes of the Congress of this century under Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Manmohan Singh.

The state of the Congress office in the district, often called the Karma Bhoomi of Mahatma Gandhi, a Congress bastion for decades, reflects the position of the party in the rest of Bihar. Not surprisingly, Congress last won a Lok Sabha election in West Champaran parliamentary constituency (earlier Bettiah) almost 30 years ago in 1984 when a sympathy wave after assassination of Indira Gandhi saw it through. Ask the local residents here and they will tell you that this parliamentary constituency would not send a Congress nominee to Parliament for the next two decades unless a miracle happened.

Not only West Champaran constituency but in entire Bihar, a realignment of political forces and castes is taking place after the 17-year-old alliance between JDU and BJP ended on a bitter note. In this quagmire of alignments and emerging caste equations, no one for sure knows how the three main parties-JDU, BJP and Lalu Prasad’s RJD would fare in the Lok Sabha elections in the State. Congress has been practically written off unless it manages an alliance with JDU. Even Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar will have a tough time in Sasaram if she contests as people of the State and her constituency saw her only on TV news channels not in the State and amongst the people who elected her.

Of the 40 members it sends to Lok Sabha, JDU got 20, BJP 12, RJD 4, Congress 2 and Independents 2 in the 2009 polls. As the caste equations assiduously built over the last almost two decades by JDU-BJP has gone topsy-turvy, even the seasoned political analysts in Bihar would find it difficult to predict the pre 2014 voter mood. BJP could gain in the State but Lalu Prasad’s RJD too is expected to do better than last time. The caste combinations of all the parties have crumbled and there is little time now to consolidate and cultivate new vote banks.

The Muslims in the State are divided between JDU and RJD and even though JDU would get a chunk of their votes as Nitish Kumar withdrew from the NDA on the issue of Narendra Modi, RJD is not a pushover. It has started a campaign saying how Kumar will join NDA after the polls and how he was with the BJP all these years. This has confused the Muslims who will go for strategic voting, looking for a candidate of either the JDU or RJD who is in a better position to defeat BJP in each of the 40 seats.

This polarisation and strategic voting by Muslims would help BJP in several segments and give it an opportunity to consolidate its upper caste vote bank and also get the votes of urban OBCs and even upwardly mobile dalits. But the gains are not significant as it has lost significant sections of the poorer OBCs or what is called the non-creamy layer due to its alliance with JDU. While the Yadav community nurses the ambition of getting Lalu Prasad a dominant political space and the Kurmi community to Nitish Kumar, it is the other intermediary castes which are being targeted by all the parties to get a lion’s share of votes.

Both JDU and BJP will have to select 40 candidates each and that is not an easy task as last time they fought on 25 and 15 seats, respectively. Political turncoats are sensing an opportunity here and they can switch seamlessly from one party to the other.

Sadhu Yadav, brother in-law of Lalu Prasad, has met Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi indicating that no one is untouchable. He fought on a Congress ticket from West Champaran last time and could well be a BJP candidate anywhere in the State in 2014. JDU has realised that there could be desertions in a closely fought contest and has taken back the suspension of its MPs. BJP is closely watching the situation and doing its homework to select 25 winning candidates. As 2014 could perhaps be the last time before the political obituary of RJD is written, the party is motivated and already campaigning.

The churning of caste and community equations is still taking place in Bihar even though polls are not far off. The macro issues of performance of UPA and development would be the core issues along with the micro issues of caste equations and consolidation of newer vote banks. At this juncture, Bihar is headed for a three-way contest but the most bitter fight will be between the old allies-JDU and BJP. (August 19, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/bihar-becomes-a-quagmire-of-political-possibilities.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2013-08-19-19105.html

Rajasthan, MP, Chhatisgarh and Delhi Gateway to 2014

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Forget opinion polls and study of voter behaviour, the results of Assembly elections in four states—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi — weeks before the Lok Sabha elections, would be first and true indicator of the way political wind is blowing in the country.

Together, these four States send 72 members to Lok Sabha and in the 2009 polls, Congress had a distinct edge, getting 41 members elected from these States while the BJP had to be content with only 29 seats. Clearly, percentage wise the size of Congress victory and its margin over BJP in these four States was more or less similar to the one it had at the national level where it formed the government. Congress got 204 seats while the BJP had to do with 117 which saw Manmohan Singh getting a second term as Prime Minister.

Given the sample size of actual voting in the four States headed for Assembly polls, which also includes the metropolitan city of Delhi, the two main parties must be closely watching the countdown to Assembly elections to get a feel of the voter’s pulse and their heart beat. There is little doubt that whoever wins the most Lok Sabha seats in these states will form the next government in Delhi, the way it happened in 2009.

Of course, voting mindset and pattern differ from Assembly elections to Lok Sabha elections, but in these four States, voting pattern in both Assembly polls in 2008 and Lok Sabha polls in 2009 was more or less similar. This was perhaps due to the fact that there was a difference of only six months in voting for Assembly polls and the Lok Sabha polls in all these four states. In six months, the voter behaviour does not change much.

Congress which was in power in Rajasthan at the time of Lok Sabha election in 2009, got an impressive 21 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats while the BJP performed poorly getting only 3 seats. In Delhi, where Sheila Dikshit has carved out a Congress bastion for almost 15 years, BJP was completely wiped out, failing to open its account as Congress won all the seven seats.

In the BJP bastion of Chhattisgarh where Raman Singh was firmly in saddle, the saffron party won an impressive 10 of the 11 seats with Congress getting the remaining one. In Madhya Pradesh, Congress sought to make a comeback by getting 12 of the 29 seats. BJP got 16 even though it was ruling the State and even in Assembly polls had performed impressively.

Given the current scenario, of the four states going to Assembly polls in December this year, three could see BJP forming the Government and with a little luck and effort even the fourth could be in its grip. There is little to doubt that BJP will get back to power for the third consecutive term in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh given the fact that Congress has more or less washed its hands off the two states. Though Congress has several towering leaders from Madhya Pradesh—Digvijay Singh, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Kamal Nath amongst others, it does not have the State in its radar of victory as of now. In Chhattisgarh, the setback by the Maoists killing top Congress leaders is a factor but even before that the party had done little to counter Raman Singh government. His model of Food Security and efficient administration despite large Maoist presence, can clearly win him another term without much of an electoral struggle.

In Rajasthan, anti incumbency is set to take a toll on the Ashok Gehlot Government as the state has seen incumbent governments being voted out in recent years. Even in the last Assembly polls in December 2008, Congress just managed to scrape through despite a bitter infighting in BJP and its victory was hardly impressive. Now when, Vasundhara Raje is raring to go with BJP uniting behind her, Congress would find it difficult to retain the State.

The most interesting battle would perhaps be in Delhi Assembly elections. Three terms of anti-incumbency of the State Government and two terms of the Central Government has had some impact but not enough to ensure the defeat of Sheila Dikshit in the national Capital.  Though BJP won all the three municipal corporations in the Municipal elections, infighting and inability to find the winning formula has kept the party in the backseat. If it comes out with a trump card in the remaining four months and the voters indeed want to punish Dikshit for her acts of omission and commission pertaining to Commonwealth Games, then BJP might have the final word. But even if BJP wins, it will be more due to voter fatigue and the disappointment with 10 years of UPA rule than anything else. In either case, Delhi promises to be a photo finish and is being watched closely.

Given this scenario, it would not be surprising to see BJP in 2014 Lok Sabha polls getting close to what Congress got in 2009, something in the range of 38-42 seats with Congress getting in the range of 26-30 seats in the four States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. These four States would see a direct fight between the two main claimants of power in 2014—Congress and BJP and there is practically no presence of any other party.  The Aam Aadmi Party would make a political debut in Delhi and remains an untested phenomenon though unlikely to affect the outcome. Bahujan Samaj Party started well in Madhya Pradesh but has lost the script now. In Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan, there is no party worth the name except Congress and BJP.

If BJP did well in all the states and manages to form Government in at least three, this would be an ominous sign for the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections. If it wins all the four, the writing would be on the wall. There is a section in the Congress which believes that Lok Sabha elections could be advanced to be held simultaneously with the Assembly polls in these four states so that there is no adverse fallout. They also believe that Samajwadi Party could pull out at the earliest given an opportunity and Congress should preempt that possibility and prevent SP getting an edge in Uttar Pradesh by announcing early Lok Sabha polls. Whatever the case may be, in the final analysis, the results of these four states would indeed prove to be the true indicator as to who would rule from New Delhi for the next five years starting May 2014. (August 12, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-08-11-18385.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/rajasthan-mp-chhattisgarh-and-delhi-gateway-to-2014.html 

Will the Food Security Act be a game changer for Congress?

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Last week, I was in Delhi to attend a seminar on Food Security in which the model adopted by the Chhatisgarh Government for almost eight years now stood out as a harbinger of change, something which the other State Governments and the Centre need to learn from.

The State Government brought in the Chhatisgarh Food Security Act much before the Centre thought of it and the law was passed in the Assembly in December last year. The Government there did its homework, prepared the ground, brought in the law only after eight years of the model being implemented when it had already become a runaway success in providing food to the needy all over the State by 7th of every month.

Most people outside Chhatisgarh know the State more for the Maoist violence but few know the reasons why the Raman Singh Government was voted for the second consecutive term and there is little reason to suspect that it will not complete a hat trick in the Assembly elections to be held later this year. Food Security is obviously one of the main factors, even critic would concede.

Ahead of the Monsoon session of Parliament which will debate the proposed Food Security Act for the country, I fail to understand how it will be a game changer for the Congress the way NREGA and loan waiver were in the 2009 Lok Sabha. Most of the States are implementing various models of food security for the last several years offering rice at Rs 1, 2 or Rs 3 per kg. In fact, this has been the electoral agenda of Dravidian parties for several decades now and also catapulted the charismatic NT Rama Rao in power in Andhra Pradesh over 25 years ago.

Why will people vote for the Congress in Chhatisgarh on this issue where food security is in place for the last 8 years or in Tamil Nadu where it exists for the last four decades. In Punjab, the Akali Dal-BJP Government has put in place a roti-dal scheme in which 15 lakh families benefit, a figure which has now gone up to 30 lakh after the Ordinance of the Central Government, covering 48 per cent of the population of the State.

Though no one is opposing the Food Security Act per se, State Governments are saying they already have a better model firmly in place for years. Chhatisgarh of course has a model which needs to be implemented and amended keeping in view the ground realities in every State. Then you have the claim of Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal that the Centre merely copied the food security ordinance from the atta-dal scheme introduced by Akali Dal Government in 2007.

The Akali Dal leaders say that the food security ordinance is a “vote security ordinance of the Congress and just a political gimmick”. They are accusing the Congress of “trying to woo the electorate in view of ensuing Lok Sabha polls with the half-baked food security ordinance”.  Other leaders in the State say the scheme was not a realistic one. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa has termed it as “food insecurity ordinance” suggesting several amendments in her letter to the Prime Minister.  She suggested amending the Bill so that allocation of foodgrain to those states that are implementing a public distribution system delivering a higher level of coverage than the ordinance provides for is protected.  She said due to the Ordinance, the monthly allocation of food grains for the State will decline by nearly 100,000 tonnes, from the current level of 296,000 tonnes. The centre’s food security scheme aims to provide five kg of grain at Rs 1-3 per kg to 67 per cent of country’s population. It is expected to cost Rs 1.2 lakh crore.

In the Delhi seminar, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh supported Food Security for the poor but criticised the national Food Security Ordinance saying it had inadequate provisions and would be ineffective when implemented. He said the central Act covers 67 per cent of population whereas Chattisgarh scheme covers 90 per cent. He urged the Centre to emulate Chhattisgarh Food Security model for betterment of poor in the country. The Chief Minister added that different States have different criteria and every State has different economic situation so one needs to understand these aspects before implementing the Food Security Act. He said it took him about six years in the field to prepare the ground work before implementing the Act in the State, while the Centre has done no homework at all.

According to Raman Singh, Public Distribution System is a chain that involves production, procurement and distribution of food grain and to implement the Food Security Act, one has to have all the three in place. “Does the Centre have the storage capacity to store the food grains and what about the transparency aspect in the Act?” he asked,  adding that it will not take less than ten years for the government before it can put a system in place to implement the Food Security Act. 

As the politics on food grain continues and brownie points scored, there is no plan in place for procurement and storage of the food grains.  Travel on the highways in Punjab and Haryana and you find thousands of tones of foodgrain lying in the open, covered merely by a plastic sheet. There is simply no storage place and movement of the food grains from the food basket of the country is extremely slow.

When procurement of wheat began in Punjab this year, it already had nearly 8 million tonnes in the godowns which was much more than what is normally kept for meeting any possible food crisis. “The movement to other parts of the country was extremely slow in the last 12 months — both Rabi and Kharif crops,” an official admitted, adding that the Centre needs to look into this aspect seriously and urgently.

Those involved in procurement and distribution say storage capacity is simply not there, private sector is not coming up in the food storage sector and the food grains have to face the vagaries of nature lying in the open. They want these to be addressed and incorporated in the proposed Act so that accountability is fixed and wastage be treated as an offence.

When Parliament debates the issues threadbare in the Monsoon Session, the country expects members to rise above partisan party politics and address all issues raised by the stakeholders which includes procurement, scientific storage, proper movement and strengthening of the Public Distribution System.  All these have to be incorporated in the proposed Act along with the provisions of successful models like the one in Chhatisgarh. Food security cannot be merely treated as a vote bank politics and allowed to die down, the way several central schemes have. Congress led UPA has already started treating it as an electoral gimmick for the Lok Sabha elections allowing several rough edges in the Ordinance which if implemented, could only lead to failure. (August 5, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-08-05-17482.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/will-the-food-security-act-be-a-game-changer-for-congress.html