PUNJAB ELECTION TOO CLOSE TO CALL

 
Amitabh Shukla | Chandigarh

The first ever triangular fight in Punjab in several decades has thrown open several political possibilities in the border State as the electorate go for their choice for the next five years on Saturday.

Battling an extremely strong two-term anti incumbency, the ruling Shiromani Akal Dal and the BJP have ceded considerable space to the rookie Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), particularly in the crucial Malwa belt having 69 of the 117 Assembly segments.

A late announcement of support by the Sirsa (Haryana) based Dera Sacha Sauda to the SAD-BJP combine is cutting both ways and is expected to neutralise the gains of the ruling combine. The hardline Sikhs are opposed to the Dera ever since its head, Gurmeet Ram Rahim, was allegedly seen in a dress similar to Guru Gobind Singh in 2007 and are strongly opposing the support extended by the Dera, saying the SAD is “shedding its panthic colours” by taking such support and now has little regard for Sikh sentiments.

Interestingly, after the Dera support to SAD-BJP, the AAP has managed to get the support of the radical Sikhs who were still undecided whom to vote for. Already getting the support of the fringe radicals, extremists and others who were opposed to the moderate Akali style of politics, the latest development seems to have consolidated the panthic (religious) votes for AAP which hitherto went to SAD.

“The AAP is the new Akali Dal,” summed up a senior party leader in Chandigarh, adding that the aspirations of the Sikhs in the new millennium was consistently ignored by the Akali Dal. No wonder SAD, claiming to be the custodian of the Sikh heritage and religion ever since it fought against the Mahants to take control of the Gurdwaras in the early last century, is feeling threatened like never before. If AAP manages to encroach cadre votes of the Akalis, the party would be headed for its worst ever performance in decades. What is more, this would considerably damage its prospects in future elections.

What eroded the cadre vote bank of the Akalis was a series of desecration incidents of Guru Granth Sahib in the last two years and the perception of the common Sikhs that the Government did not do anything to arrest the culprits and prevent the incidents. The developmental plank of the SAD-BJP alliance did not work as it should have given the high expectations of the people in the second term.

The controversy of five high priests exonerating Gurmeet Ram Rahim of blasphemy in October 2015 (allegedly at the instance of the government) and the Panj Piyaras (five beloved) rising in revolt against the decision further eroded the credibility of the Akalis amongst the common Sikhs. The issue remains unresolved even as AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal tried to fish in troubled waters by meeting the Panj piyaras in the run up to the polls.

The Congress, on the other hand, had everything going for it in these polls after a long time. In recent years, the party is going to the polls on a common cause and projecting a united face. All factional and at times suicidal fights within the party came to an end as the larger cause was the defeat of the Akalis.

Political leaders in the State point out that the SAD-BJP Government had let lose a regime of persecution of their political opponents like the Congress through the “halqa in-charge” system. In this, the halqa in-charge was either a MLA or a defeated MLA or one appointed by SAD in an area co-terminus with the jurisdiction of a Sub-Divisional Police Officer (SDPO). He was the one who issued directions to police to file cases against opponents and their family members.

Due to this regressive system of halqa in-charge, which finds no parallel in any other State, except perhaps the CPI-M in West Bengal during their heydays, the anti-incumbency against the Akalis increased manifold in the rural areas and Congress found itself to be a natural beneficiary. 

What helped the Congress further was appointment of Capt Amarinder Singh first as State Congress president and in the run-up to the polls as chief ministerial candidate of the party.

Amarinder reached out to his opponents within like Partap Singh Bajwa and Rajinder Kaur Bhattar and had a complete control on ticket distribution. The entry of Navjot Singh Sidhu in the party, though a little late in the day, energised the Congress cadres. Sidhu may not be a grassroots politician or may not last in politics as he is more of an intellectual asset but his crowd connect is immense. What Bhagwant Mann has done to AAP due to his crowd connect, Sidhu did for the Congress. The Punjabis loved his one liners against the father and son duo of Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Badal and he campaigned energetically throughout the State.

The BJP, a junior partner of the Akali Dal for a long time, lost the bus. Even though the party had little say in the alliance government and could never ever get the post of Deputy Chief Minister, the baggage of the big brother weighed heavy on it. Many in the party admit that In Punjab this time round, the party should have gone alone like it did in Maharashtra. “They could have projected Sidhu as a leader and parted ways with the Akalis six months ago,” said a senior party leader. He said Sidhu’s fight was against the Badals and not the BJP as such. 

Many in Punjab vouch that the main fight is between Congress and AAP in the state and SAD-BJP alliance is a distant third. Though support of Dera Sacha Sauda would help the ruling alliance in Malwa, but only partially. AAP could take a lead in Malwa belt on Congress. But it would be in Majha (Border districts) and Doaba (districts between Sutlej and Beas)  where the real battle would be fought. If AAP makes inroads into the dalit belt of Doaba and get a few seats in Majha, Punjab could go its way. Contrarily, if Congress takes control of Majha and manages its hold on the dalits of Doaba, besides a reasonable seats in Malwa, the State could go its way.

“It’s  a cliffhanger…very close,” that is the verdict of most of the political analysts in the State Capital Chandigarh.  (February 4, 2017)