Hooting of Chief Ministers: Reflection of unpopularity!

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Fighting a battle for political survival in Haryana amidst senior party members deserting the sinking ship of the Congress, Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda stirred the hornet’s nest when he declared that he would not attend any function of the Prime Minister.

Two other Chief Ministers, both battling crisis within and outside the party, were quick to lap the idea so was the Congress, desperately looking for issues which can help it score brownie points at a time when the party cadre are dejected and lying low after the historic defeat in the Lok Sabha polls.

In Maharashtra, Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan decided not to attend any function in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi participates. The reason is not difficult to find. He is extremely unpopular even in his own party what to talk of the entire State as a recent revolt against his leadership indicated. The Congress workers in Maharashtra and those in ally NCP know well that he has been imposed as Chief Minister by the party high command (read Sonia and Rahul Gandhi), loathes electoral politics and never contests elections himself and clearly knows the writing on the wall.

Another is Hemant Soren, the Jharkhand Chief Minister. His only claim to fame is that he is the son of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha chief Shibu Soren and happens to be the Chief Minister due to a ragtag opportunistic coalition in the mineral rich State which is infamous for its unstable Governments ever since it was carved out of Bihar in the year 2000. The Congress is supporting Soren’s Government due to its own vested interests and for him too, the writing on the wall is clear. His days as Chief Minister are over.

So what is the surprise when all the three were booed by the crowd, jeered and mocked at in the presence of Modi? If Bihar Chief Minister Jeetan Ram Manjhi or Uttar Pradesh CM Akhilesh Yadav share the stage with Modi, they too perhaps would meet the same fate. It’s not a rocket science to know that both are extremely unpopular at this point of time in their respective States. But if Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa or West Bengal Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee share stage with Modi, it would be difficult to visualize the crowd hooting and jeering at them. Clearly, the hooting of the three Chief Ministers was more due to their unpopularity and anti-incumbency of their parties rather than a planned move by the BJP against them.

The three Chief Ministers are merely disguising their unpopularity and imminent defeat in the Assembly polls by making proclamations that they would not attend functions where Modi is present. Why blame Modi for your plight and weakness? They could have come up with better explanations on their hooting rather than blaming the BJP and Modi. A political answer would have been to gauze the public opinion in advance, use the expertise of the intelligence agencies at your disposal in the State police and if there was a possibility of jeering, get your own supporters at the venue and then shout down those opposing you.

But then, I doubt if there are any Hooda supporters left in Haryana or for that matter a Chavan supporter in Maharashtra. Similarly, it would be difficult to locate any Hemant Soren supporter in Ranchi given his unpopularity in the State. Realising that they were bereft of any support base, all the three Chief Ministers did was to make a loud noise without any

substance. It was more a reflection of their political helplessness and a desperate attempt to generate some sympathy when elections are round the corner.

In the three poll bound States, first it was the turn of Maharashtra Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan to face the ire of the public. He was heckled while sharing the dais with Modi at a function in Solapur. Instead of any political sound political reply, all he did was to flout the established protocol and boycott the Prime Minister’s programme in Nagpur for a project for Metro.

Then in Haryana, Hooda was booed and not allowed to speak in the presence of Modi at a stone-laying ceremony at Kaithal. Within an hour, he convened a Press conference and declared that he would not attend any function with Modi. Of course, three days later, Hooda arrived in Delhi and had a cup of tea with Modi and issued a statement saying, “I fully respect the constitutional post of the Prime Minister. We discussed such issues concerning Haryana as fall under the purview of the Central Government”.

After Hooda, Hemant Soren in Jharkhand was at the receiving end who had to face the ire of the crowd who started chanting pro-Modi slogans in the State Capital Ranchi. Earlier, in Jammu & Kashmir too, sentiments were expressed against Chief Minister Omer Abdullah in the presence of Modi.

As all the cases of heckling have been reported from the four States going to Assembly polls later this year, the political temperature on the issue boiled soon. Though Abdullah did not express his thoughts, the Congress immediately sought to make a political capital out of the issue by directing its Chief Ministers to boycott functions of Modi.

Anyone with even elementary understanding of public rallies would know that almost all the people who attend rallies are brought in by the leaders and the cadres to the venue. Gone are the days when people used to travel distances to hear their popular leaders. In the age of 24-hour news channels, every leader has been heard countless times and no one has the time and energy to Assembly for rallies in hot and humid conditions. So, people are brought in bus loads and provided all facilities like packed lunch and water so that they do not have any grievance. When Hooda, Chavan or Soren felt that there was a likelihood of their hooting, they could have followed the procedure for rallies and brought in their own supporters too.

Interestingly, in all the three States where the Chief Ministers were booed and jeered, the Congress was practically wiped out in the recent Lok Sabha polls and it was the BJP alone or with its allies all the way. So the hooting also perhaps reflects the public mood and also the fact that people at large realise that the Governments in power in the three States do not represent the will of the people.   

In all this high drama, there was sane voice too. Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal called upon the representatives of all the political parties to strictly maintain decorum, discipline and refrain from creating ruckus by way of ‘hooting’ and other unsavory acts of distraction during public functions. The veteran of many a battle, the septuagenarian termed this an unhealthy practice. No one would disagree with Badal. But the fact remains that as a political strategy, such incidents will continue to take place.

I have seen Hooda himself employing a similar tactics against his rivals in Congress in front of the party president Sonia Gandhi over a decade back. At a rally in Gohana in Sonipat district, Hooda supporters not only showed black flags to Bhajan Lal but also shouted slogans against him. You reap what you sow, if you sow a wind, you reap a whirlwind. This is perhaps what has happened to Hooda. Now, he is simply shouting grapes are sour. (August 25, 2014)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2014-08-24-63001.html

Days of Opportunistic alliances are over

 

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Licking their wounds after the humiliating defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, two former Bihar Chief Ministers—fodder scam tainted Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar — have joined hands for their political survival in Bihar.

What is interesting in the entire drama being scripted in Bihar is the fact that more than any ideology, it is sheer political pragmatism for the two arch rivals to come together. They are raising the non-existent bogey of social justice to justify their alliance. I am not sure if there are any takers for the quarter of a century old formula of social justice, milked to the hilt, in Bihar or elsewhere. There is reason for skepticism. People in the two States of so called social justice experiment—Bihar and Uttar Pradesh — have seen how the votaries of the idea have got neck deep into corruption, nepotism and bad governance. For them social justice over the years has been a theory to gobble the votes of the OBCs, Dalits and minorities. After coming to power, they impose family rule with an inefficient Government thrown-in which lacks any idea or vision, neck deep as it is in corruption.

Besides social justice, Lalu, the chieftain of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Kumar’s Janata Dal United (JD-U) has tried to raise the ghost of communalism once again. This is a time-tested political formula, which used to give good electoral dividends till a decade back. But this formula no longer gets you the desired results. You cannot force the minority community time and again to vote for you if you don’t do anything for them and only instill fear and a sense of insecurity in them.

It seems Lalu Prasad hasn’t learnt his lessons despite being repeatedly rejected by the electorate. Fodder scam tainted, Lalu cannot contest any election now as he is a convict in the infamous case. But this has not prevented him from foisting his wife, brother-in-laws, father-in-laws, daughter and now son on the people of Bihar in the name of social justice and checking communalism. Now almost everyone knows that those who got “social justice” as per the formula of Lalu Prasad were only his family and no one else. Fifteen years of non-governance and what Nitish Kumar always described as “jungle raj” did immense harm to Bihar, something from which it is yet to recover. Spare a thought for the people of the State, Mr Prasad.

Nitish Kumar, on the other hand, is a confused person now. An egoist, he does not know how to react to the situation after he walked out of his 17-year-old alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). So when it was obvious that Narendra Modi would be the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP, Kumar perhaps made the biggest political mistake of his life by severing ties with the time-tested alliance partner. The BJP and the JD(U) (earlier Samata Party) had been through thick and thin and fought the “jungle raj” of Lalu Prasad and his wife Rabri Devi together. The entire winning formula of Kumar always had the BJP as an integral part, a legacy which he is trying to disown rather late in his political career.

Committing one mistake after the other, instead of making good governance an issue for the State, Kumar has now gone back to the of secular-communal debate and social justice to fetch votes. I am sure, when Kumar introspects, he will realise that it was an opportunity lost by severing ties with the BJP. With the BJP in power in the Centre, he would have had a great opportunity to further develop the State with Central help. The saffron party was playing second fiddle to the JD(U) in Bihar and would have continued that way. But now, when the BJP has single handedly demolished both RJD and JD(U) with little known strength of another ally, Ram Vilas Paswan of the LJP, there is no looking back.

The third angle in the troika of RJD-JD(U) is the Congress, which is fighting for its survival not only in the Hindi heartland but also all over the country. By-elections are being held for 10 Assembly seats on August 21 in the State and for the first time, the grand alliance of RJD-JD(U)-Congress will take on the BJP. The very formation of this three-party alliance is the realisation that the BJP has now emerged out of the shadows and become the biggest player in Bihar.

If this alliance, based without any principles and ideology but only on common threat of the BJP, wins a majority of the seats in the by-elections, it may continue till the Assembly polls. However, if the BJP-LJP alliance repeats the performance of the Lok Sabha elections, I am sure Lalu-Nitish would start questioning its effectiveness. The three-party alliance has been created in haste without the bonding of social classes, ideology, ideas and a roadmap and would collapse sooner or later due to the sheer weight of its inner contradictions.

Ironically, some see the alliance in Bihar purely in mathematical terms, subtracting and adding votes of each party to decide who the winner would be. But votes are not polled this way. It is a social, anthropological and electoral science and not mathematics where you add a caste and subtract another to get results in a given constituency.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the three-party alliance got 44.3 per cent of votes while BJP-led NDA got 38.8 per cent.  In the 2010 Assembly elections, this RJD-JDU-Congress together polled 49.83 per cent votes against the 23.21 per cent of BJP-LJP. But the entire theory of percentage arrived like this is a fallacy and is based on the premise that people only vote on the basis of caste, community, religion etc, and not on issues, development and governance.

Even Yadavs (vote bank of the RJD) and Kurmis (vote bank of Kumar) have been historically antagonistic and such an alliance is yet to be tested electorally on the ground. Already, there are reports of antagonism between the two. Then, how can anyone believe that the entire Yadav community in the State is behind Lalu and Kurmi caste behind Kumar. Lalu’s wife Rabri Devi lost from the Yadav bastion of Saran while his daughter Misa Bharti lost from another Yadav bastion of Pataliputra in the Lok Sabha polls.

Nitish Kumar has already become the junior partner in the alliance and the RJD supporters say it is now a fight between them and the BJP with JD(U) and the Congress remaining only as fringe players. The message is clear. If at all a chance comes to form the next Government in Bihar in 2015, it will be RJD (read Rabri Devi or Misa Bharti as Chief Minister).

Ironically, Lalu wants this khichdi in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh as well when he urged the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party to join hands against the BJP. While Mulayam Singh Yadav lapped up the idea, Mayawati immediately rejected it, leading to its premature death. Perhaps Lalu is still living in 1989 or 1990 when a disaster called the Third Front existed. People and parties have moved but Lalu wants to take them back in the era of Mandal politics and keep them pinned to casteism, non-governance and development. Mr Prasad, it was time you too moved on and fought on policies and programmes rather than on the redundant and obsolete ideas of the past. (August 18. 2014) 

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/days-of-opportunistic-alliances-are-over.html

Priyanka as the panacea for all ills plaguing Congress

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Though Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has said no to joining active politics “as of now”, Congress sycophants and worshippers of the dynasty have not lost hope. For them, her “no” is only temporary and again after a few months, if not a few weeks, they will raise the slogan of “bring Priyanka in active politics… Long live Congress”. They have been raising this slogan for a decade and would continue to do so till she joins politics.

A little over two decades ago, when Narasimha Rao was the first non-dynast Congress Prime Minister of the country, a similar slogan was raised for Sonia Gandhi. She was then in mourning, having lost her husband Rajiv Gandhi to LTTE assassins but the sycophants would not listen. They would repeatedly mock at the Rao government and urge Sonia to join active politics by staging road-shows near 10 Janpath. The rank and file of Congress then could not look beyond the Gandhi family for its political fortunes even though Rao had provided relatively good governance, was opening the economy with Manmohan Singh as his Finance Minister and there were visible  signs of revival all around. Sonia catapulted to the wishes and soon became the Congress President, a post she still occupies.

For Rahul Gandhi, the next generation of the Gandhi family, entry in politics was a fait accompli even though the young man was indifferent and hardly interested in the profession of his mother, father, grandmother and great grandfather. Even now, he does not seem to be interested in politics and does not want to make a career of it despite his recent decision to jump into the Well of the Lok Sabha protesting against so called communalization of politics in the Narendra Modi era. The revelations in Natwar Singh’s book that Sonia Gandhi did not become prime minister in May 2004 because her son Rahul Gandhi did not want her to take up the responsibility as he was afraid that she would be killed like his father Rajiv Gandhi, has only confirmed the belief that the Congress Vice President does not want any responsibility either for himself or his mother.

What perhaps is preventing Priyanka’s entry in politics is the tradition that in the Gandhi-Nehru family, it has always been only two members at a time in politics and not three in the last almost 100 years. Moti Lal Nehru and his son Jawaharlal were in Congress politics together for a brief period and then the latter took over. When Nehru was the Prime Minister, his daughter Indira Gandhi kept away from politics even though she was groomed well for a leadership role and saw it at close quarters every day. Even after Nehru’s death, it took a while for Indira Gandhi to become the Prime Minister. Then she and her son Sanjay Gandhi were together in politics before Sanjay’s untimely death in a Delhi plane crash in 1980. It was only then that a reluctant Rajiv Gandhi entered politics to keep alive the family tradition. Indira and Rajiv were together in politics for only four years when the then Prime Minister was assassinated in October 1984. It was Rajiv’s turn now to keep alive the family tradition till his death in 1991. By then, Congress was so attuned to a member of the dynasty heading it that it could not look beyond Sonia.

This is what is happening now. When law of diminishing returns has caught up with Sonia and Rahul Gandhi and they can no longer get votes for them, Congress sycophants have conveniently turned to Priyanka, thinking that she now has the magic wand, could salvage the situation and help them win polls again. Wishful thinking! But that is the way Congress rank and file has been forced to believe over the years as it is a party driven by a family and dynasty and not an ideology or a coherent thinking.

We have seen Priyanka Gandhi campaigning in Amethi and Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh from where her brother and mother have been winning successive elections. She makes frequent forays in the constituencies even when elections are not around to keep the bonding intact. However, in the last Lok Sabha elections, when she showed her aggressive best and took on Narendra Modi, she invariably found her at the receiving end due to Modi’s brilliant one liners. The trump card was found faltering. In her electioneering in the two constituencies of UP, she hardly spoke about the issues facing the country and what solutions her party offered. Of course, she is a good communicator, was able to connect with the voters with her approach and this helped her mother and brother win.  But for a serious role in politics, more is required not occasional visits to a constituency or two.

But given the way Rahul has fared and reduced the party to the lowest ever tally when the Lok Sabha elections were fought under his leadership, Priyanka perhaps is the only hope of the party for which dynasty is the glue which keeps the machinery and conflicting claims of leaders together. Priyanka reaches out to the people unlike Rahul and Sonia Gandhi, is more articulate and approachable and the party believes that she has the charisma which her brother and mother lack. Ask the average Congress worker and even the leaders and they will tell you it is a matter of time before she enters politics. Many see her as the star campaigner of the party in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the way Modi was for BJP in 2014.

As the family does not speak out on any issue, more so if they are related to the family, there are other theories doing the round. One is that Priyanka would never join politics and instead her son Rehan Vadra would be adopted by Rahul Gandhi to give  him the magical Gandhi surname and groom him as the next generation leader as is the tradition in the family for the last 100 years. A news report in weekly Sunday Guardian by senior and accomplished Journalist Pankaj Vohra brought this out. He argued that a succession plan was worked out to enable Rahul adopt Rehan given that he remains a bachelor at the age of 44 and there was little possibility of him getting married in the immediate future.

Those closely watching Congress and family affairs insist that when senior leaders like Janardan Dwivedi and Oscar Fernandes talk of Priyanka entering politics, it is part of a strategy—to float a test balloon and see the reaction periodically. Invariably, this evokes a strong reaction with articles in newspapers, stories on television channels, Congress sycophants coming out in the open and finally Priyanka herself denying it with a statement. So when Congress spokesperson Shobha Oza said that party workers wanted all members of the Gandhi family to be active in politics, it was part of a well thought out strategy which is to float the trial balloon regularly to see the popularity of Priyanka in public domain.

The problem for the Congress President is if Priyanka gets into politics and become more popular than her brother, there would be an intense sibling rivalry. There is every possibility of this as the graph of Rahul has been continuously going down in the last four years till it reached its nadir in the 2014 polls with the party getting only 44 members in the Lok Sabha.  Perhaps, Congress can build on an idea which Rahul himself devised. This is democratization of the party. It can hold primaries or an election in the party through a secret ballot to determine who is more popular—Rahul, Priyanka or someone else. But then, if Congress had behaved that way, it would not have reached the figure of 44, begging to be declared the main opposition party in Lok Sabha. (August 11, 2014) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/priyanka-as-the-panacea--for-all-ills-plaguing-cong.html

Congress and Hooda’s litmus test of Haryana

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

The Model Code of Conduct is expected to come into force in Haryana by the end of this month for the Assembly polls, expected to be held in October. In the run up to the polls, there has been some expected and some unexpected script for the ruling Congress. The outcome of all the drama being enacted in the State is pointing towards one direction — a political disaster is waiting to happen. From now on, only a miracle could help the Congress come to power in the State for the third time in a row.

The most significant problem in Haryana is the reliance of the Congress high command on only one leader — Bhupinder Singh Hooda. This is a far cry from the policy of promoting several leaders in any given State, representing different caste and sub-regional aspirations. But in Haryana, party chief Sonia Gandhi and vice-president Rahul Gandhi have placed all their eggs in one basket. Tragically, the basket has got torn and the eggs are falling one by one.

Even as the chips are down, Hooda has shown no inclination to take everyone along as he perhaps knows the outcome and is preparing to position himself in the party after a possible electoral defeat in the Assembly polls. As the party high command is oblivious of the charges of the dissidents and their repeated plea against the Chief Minister, Hooda has turned into a regional autocrat, not willing to accommodate anyone except his camp followers. All dissidents have either parted way or will do so anytime now, except perhaps former Union Minister Selja, who is perhaps positioning herself as an alternative to Hooda in State politics post 2014 Assembly polls.

Hooda’s autocratic style of functioning is reflected in his stubborn approach in appointing several commissioners to statutory bodies. With election weeks away, the appointments did not serve any political purpose and harmed his reputation immensely. If you appoint any person to a statutory post on the eve of elections and flout all norms in the process, you only make a public spectacle of yourself. The electorate keeps a watch on all this and looks for an opportune time. Sadly, it is merely eight-ten weeks for Hooda.

Now, Governor Kaptan Singh Solanki has asked for an explanation from the Government on the legality of appointments. Obviously, Hooda will target the Governor saying he is a BJP appointee. He could have easily avoided all this when polls are round the corner and he could have waited for his third victory to appoint anyone wherever he wanted. But then, it seems Hooda is himself not sure about the electoral outcome, necessitating the controversial appointments. He perhaps thought that making half a dozen people Commissioners, giving them perks like office, vehicles and staff was more important than the credibility of his Government.

The year 2014 was really bad for Hooda on all counts. The controversy surrounding the appointment of the Commissioners was only the latest in the list which troubled the two-time Chief Minister from the Jat land of the state, Rohtak. Simultaneously, he was faced with the resignation of his Cabinet colleague, Power Minister Capt Ajay Singh Yadav from the Cabinet. Though Yadav took back his resignation after persuasion from party high command, but the damage had been done. The entire State knew the allegations which Yadav hurled at his boss and it will be foolhardy on part of the party to believe that this will not hurt them in the polls.

Yadav charged Hooda with discrimination against most areas of the state except Rohtak from where his son Deepinder Hooda is MP, and areas surrounding it. “Only Rohtak, Sonipat and Jhajjar have seen development. People in our areas question us about development and jobs but we are helpless,” he said, while resigning, adding that power was vested in a single person (Hooda) in the State and all decisions flow from there. Yadav has been making the allegations for a while but was forced to remain silent all these months as the party high command was backing Hooda and never heeded to the campaign of dissidents.

That perhaps is the reason why dissident Congress leader and Rajya Sabha member Chaudhary Birender Singh is leaving Congress with which he was associated for four decades and joining BJP in the next two weeks. A member of the Congress Working Committee, Birender’s repeated complaint against Hooda in the last over four years found no takers in New Delhi and no attempt was made to mollify him. He has now been removed from the CWC but that is not going to cut the losses of the party. Birender is expected to take away a section of the Jat voters with him when he leaves Congress.

With Hooda becoming unpopular and no guarantee of the party returning to power, Haryana Congress has been facing an exodus of leaders. Rao Inderjit Singh, who had also been vocal against Hooda, showed the way by joining BJP, winning from Rohtak and becoming a minister in the Narendra Modi Cabinet. Like Birender, who is expected to join the BJP on August 18, Rao, was also in the Congress for over four decades.

Congress leader and sitting MLA,  Dharambir switched over to BJP just on the eve of Lok Sabha polls, got party ticket and is now a  MP from Bhiwani-Mahendergarh seat. The move has severely dented Congress’ hold in the area from where from chief minister Bansi Lal hailed from. The third Congressman to be elected on a BJP ticket was Ramesh Kaushik from Sonipat. He changed his loyalties sometime ago and was rewarded with a BJP ticket.

Another major political setback for Hooda this year was his friend Venod Sharma leaving Congress. He severed his four-decade old ties with the Congress to float  Jan Chetna Party. Sharma too is exploring possibilities of merging his outfit with BJP or entering into a loose alliance with it. Then there is Rajya Sabha member Selja who has been critical of Hooda for years now but unlike other leaders, she will remain in the party and fight the battle internally for leadership position in the near future. Clearly, Congress is a sinking ship in Haryana and the Captain of the shit, Hooda has to take the blame for so many desertions and doing little to change his style of functioning and accommodating the views of those opposed to him.

The unpopularity of Hooda and the Congress is there for all to see. The Lok Sabha poll results shook Congress like never before, giving it merely one of the 10 seats. But Hooda continues to overlook the results, saying that it was a wave in favour of a person (Modi) and some other day ridiculing the Gujarat model of development saying Haryana model was far better. I don’t know, how many voters in Haryana believe him, but one thing is sure. Even his party colleagues do not. That perhaps explains a series of high profile desertions this year. What all this means is that Congress has practically written off Haryana even though the Opposition is badly divided and the excellent performance of BJP in the Lok Sabha polls may not necessarily mean that it will win Assembly polls as comfortably.

Even as the writing is on the wall, Hooda and Congress are putting up a brave face. Hooda has been touring the entire state and mocking at the Gujarat model insisting that there should be a Haryana model of Development in the country. Clearly, the battle lines in the State indicate that it is Hooda versus the rest. If Hooda misses the script and the plot in October polls, the entire blame will be on his soldiers. The Chief Minister is doing all he can to change the plot by aggressive campaigning. But it seems it is too little and too late. (August 4, 2014) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2014-08-03-60689.html