Will Rahul Gandhi do something different?

VIEWPOINT 

AMITABH SHUKLA

I am not an astrologer nor do I believe in predictions. But there is something which I can predict pretty safely and chances are that I would never go wrong on this. You guessed it right—Rahul Gandhi would be the Prime Minister of the country some day. If that sentence looks vague then I would say that it looks a distinct possibility or rather impossible in 2014, but could very well be possible in 2019, 2024, in 2029 or anytime in between if the incumbent government is of Third Front variety.

Predicting the future Prime Minister of the country in a democracy in any other country of the world five or ten years from now is extremely difficult and risky. Ask someone in Britain or Australia to name the person who is certain to become the Prime Minister after the present one and all you would get is blank faces. Ask someone who will be the President of the United States after Barrack Obama’s second tenure and again you would be greeted by blank stares. No one, not even the best poll analyst or astrologer would stick his neck out and predict that. But in the case of India it is rather easy, not only for me but almost anyone who lives in the country and follows politics even remotely can predict that Rahul would be the Prime Minister one day.

In fact, the day Rahul was elected as an MP from Amethi the entire country knew that one day he would assume charge as the Prime Minister. As the de facto head of the Congress, a party which has ruled the country for over half a century since Independence, he obviously has a realistic chance of becoming the PM one day.

The AICC session at Talkatora Stadium in Delhi merely endorsed what most people in the country already knew. You did not have to be a political journalist with sources deep inside Congress to know that a Prime Minister nominated by the Congress after Manmohan Singh, had to be Rahul Gandhi. Whether you officially declare him to be your candidate or un-officially declare it, or camouflage it with several words and phrases, the reality remains the same.  Dynasty is so well entrenched in Congress that the psyche of an average Congress person is completely dominated by the thought that only a Gandhi can be their leader and no one else.

Remember when PV Narasimha Rao was the Prime Minister and was not endorsed by the Gandhi family, he is not even in the footnotes of Congress history. He has not only been forgotten but even dumped by the in-house historians of the Congress. Of course, Manmohan Singh would find a place in the Congress honor list, at least for sometime as he was duly endorsed first by Sonia Gandhi and later by her son and heir apparent Rahul Gandhi.

But already a campaign has begun to disassociate the party from the Manmohan Singh regime and its acts of omission and commission. Sooner or later you would find Manmohan Singh’s legacy in the dustbin of Congress. Without demolishing the structure of the Manmohan Singh regime, Rahul and his cheerleaders would not build their edifice. The economist Prime Minister would be the fall guy after the summer of 2014 if the party looses or wins. If Congress wins, all credit would go to Rahul and if the party looses, and the chances are that it will, the blame would obviously go to the Prime Minister. That is the way Congress party is structured, that is the way an average Congress person and leader thinks, Rahul is no exception.

Not making Rahul the Prime Ministerial candidate of the party was deliberate. The top ideologues of Congress did not want to fall in the trap of BJP and make the 2014 battle Rahul versus Narendra Modi like the Presidential elections of United States.  If Rahul is battered in such a direct contest, the morale of an average Congress person would become so low that their belief in the dynasty would be shaken. This is what the party wanted to avoid and keep the flock together till 2019 or 2024 when Rahul would realistically have a go at the chair of Prime Minister after a stint in Opposition. In any case, one’s leadership skills is tested and honed more when in Opposition than in the ruling party.

Ask the Congressmen and they will obviously tell you that Rahul delivered one of his finest speeches at the AICC session. But the speech was delivered to a captive audience comprising entirely of Congress leaders and workers. Ironically, the cheerleaders of Rahul clapped whenever Rahul started shouting and increased his tone and tenor of speech. I failed to understand why the supporters or the cheerleaders of Rahul treat it like an IPL match when the cheerleaders of the team start waving and dancing whenever a batsman hits a ball to the boundary or whenever a wicket of the opponent falls. Come on, this was an in house function and the only neutral people on the venue were journalists covering the event. 

There was nothing in the speech of Rahul which could throw some light in the direction in which the party was heading under him. In any case, from the very beginning there has been a huge gap in what the scion of the Gandhi dynasty says and what he practices.

“I am a loyal soldier of the party…I will do what the party asks me…The opposition has good marketing skills…They are selling combs to bald people…” was what he said and more. There was no substance only rhetoric which the cheerleaders lapped up not only at the venue but even in the television studios.

On Rahul, the AICC session reminded me of an event of the Indian Youth Congress in Nainital district of Uttarakhand in 2009. In the function Rahul said that he abhors “dynasty, patronage and money” in politics urging the youth to join politics through democratic process and internal elections of NSUI and IYC. The same dynasty has made him the de facto prime ministerial candidate of the party, patronage has made him what he is and of course the role of money is there for all to see. I still fail to understand why Rahul spoke the words he did in Nainital if he was the beneficiary of the same ills he spoke of.  I am yet to find answer to this one and several other speeches and acts of Gandhi where there was a day-light between what he said or preached and what he practiced. (January 20, 2014)

AAP as a 'safety valve' for Congress

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

While covering the 2009 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, a senior Congress leader told me that the party had a Unique Selling Proposition (USP), an ace up its sleeve. Unable to understand the clue despite covering the party for a while, I asked him what it was. He smiled mysteriously at my ignorance and simply said, Rahul Gandhi.

Probed further, he said USP was the young age of Rahul, the youngest leader in the two parties—Congress and BJP—and youth of the country had simply lapped up the idea of Rahul. He claimed, though without any supporting argument or data, that all those between the age of 18 and 39 (Rahul’s age then) voted for Congress. I obviously didn’t agree.

But at 39, Rahul indeed was the youngest leader amongst BJP, Congress and even the regional parties. He was then largely an untested commodity from whom there were a lot of political expectations. The results were soon out and the Congress got over 200 seats and formed the Government with its allies. It managed an impressive 22 seats in Uttar Pradesh and the success both at the national level and in UP was given by the family loyalists to Rahul. The leader of UP had the last laugh, he called me up and reminded me about the conversation during campaign period in which he had told me that the party has a USP, an ace up its sleeve. Since then, I asked a lot of leaders with whom I interacted as to why Rahul didn’t become the Prime Minister in 2009 as the party was in an extremely comfortable zone. Moreover, when you give credit to a leader for victory in a democracy, obviously he should be the leader of the party and run the government. I never got a logical answer and it still remains a mystery to me why Manmohan Singh got a second tenure and Rahul did not get his first as Prime Minister. Or for that matter, why didn’t the young Rahul want to become the prime minister then. After the Assembly elections in UP in 2012, I called the same leader and asked why didn’t the Rahul magic work in UP despite campaigning so hard and handpicking most of the candidates.

“This happens in politics. Lot of factors play out,” was his reply. I called  him again last week to ask if the USP of Congress for the big battle of 2014 remains Rahul, the leader from UP, a die-hard Congress and Gandhi family supporter, was not sure this time round and fumbled for appropriate words and analysis. Rahul will be 44 soon and he no longer remains the USP of Congress nor is the ace on which the party can bet for the big battle ahead.

What is ironical is that those betting on Rahul in 2009, and here I am not talking about hardcore Congress loyalists, have shifted their loyalties lock stock and barrel towards Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Even though Kejriwal might be learning about governance in Delhi through the trial and error method, a lot of Congress supporters have overnight switched their loyalties to AAP and think he could be a decent alternative to Manmohan Singh. This group has loyalities intact towards Rahul but as Kejriwal is the flavor of the season and they see a dramatic shift in policy and politics if Naredra Modi becomes the Prime Minister, they think Kejriwal is a safe bet as of now.

No wonder supporters of Modi are devising strategies day in and day out to counter Kejriwal. They know that Rahul and his party are down and out. Even if the Congress Vice President is made the Prime Ministerial candidate in the January 17 AICC meet, the fortunes are not likely to change. Modi supporters are worried that the anti Congress vote would go to AAP affecting their chances in the urban constituencies of the country and also the youth.

Kejriwal would be 46 this year and is 2 years senior to Rahul. The same veteran Congress leader from UP who talked about Rahul being the USP of the party in 2009 now finds nothing wrong in the Delhi chief minister. His loyalties to Rahul might not have lessened but he builds an argument in favour of Kejriwal and how a post poll alliance of AAP, Congress, some regional parties and possibly left could keep the “communal forces” at bay.

He is already looking not at 2014 but possibly another election by the end of 2015 or 2016 in which people would be fed up by such a rag tag arrangement and vote overwhelmingly for the Congress and Rahul would be the Prime Minister. So there you got it. The Congress supporters have got it right that the party would not come back to power in 2014. In such a situation, the next best alternative is to support someone who has any semblance of possibility to counter the Modi juggernaut.

At this moment, they see a plausible alternative in Kejriwal as he is an untested commodity, out to prove a lot of things and also politically gullible and almost similar in ideology to the NGO style functioning of Rahul and his mother Sonia Gandhi through non-constitutional institutions like the National Advisory Council. 

Well, if wishes were horses, donkeys would fly for sure. The more AAP expands and increases its membership drive, the possibility of filtering gets all the more remote and distant. I have seen how Congress discards and those on the fringes are hopping on the AAP bandwagon in the hope that they would get a place under the sun. Ask them about the ideology of AAP and all they have is a cap on their head and slogan against corruption. Fine, but you are treating politics as a 20-20 cricket match and want instant result. That is not the way politics works out.

Talking to Congress leaders and their sympathy for AAP, it is getting clear that it is fast becoming a “safety valve” for the Congress. When the Indian National Congress was established in 1885, it was considered a “safety valve” for the British regime so that anything against the imperial regime could be discussed in a safe forum in which

British officials or anglicized Indians discussed issues concerning India. If AAP indeed is not a “safety valve” of the Congress in 2014, it will have to shed this image fast. If not, it will be reduced to the B team of Congress and in that situation, Kejriwal could well be the chief ministerial candidate of Congress for  Delhi assembly elections as and when the present assembly is dissolved and fresh elections take place. (January 13, 2014) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/aap-as-a-safety-valve-for-congress.html

The Raja Sahib test for Rahul

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Those who live in glass houses do not throw stones at others. Having an experience of 50 years in politics, I am sure Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh must have been told about this dictum a long time ago. But I am not sure whether the multiple time Chief Minister who likes being called Raja Sahib, ever thought about this when he began his vendetta politics against his political rivals in the State.

The same vendetta politics has now boomeranged on him and he has been cornered on several fronts. There is another idiom often quoted in political circles. When you have skeletons in your own cupboard, do not try to open the cupboard of others. Perhaps the 79-year old leader failed to read too much into this before launching a fusillade against the first BJP family of Himachal Pradesh — the Dhumals even as he had skeletons lined up in his own cupboard.

Virbhadra Singh may cry hoarse from the rooftop that what he did in Himachal Pradesh in the last one year was not vendetta politics but ask the ordinary Congress workers in the State and they will tell you all the Government did after taking over in December 2012 was try to nail the family of Prem Kumar Dhumal and consolidate the politics of patronage in which you only distribute the state largesse on your chosen ones — family members and inner coterie.

People of the State would tell you that there could have been irregularities in the way Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association (HPCA) is run. It may have been converted into a

company from society and it may be the personal fiefdom of Prem Kumar Dhumal’s son Anurag Thakur. But the people will also tell you that the organisation brought international cricket to the hill State and built one of the most beautiful cricket stadiums of the world. Now, do not give credit to your rivals for bringing international cricket to the state but also do not bring out a huge microscope and start scrutinising every minute transaction of the HPCA. Remember, at the end of the day, people remember it for bringing cricket to the State and feel proud that they have seen international cricketers playing in what is arguably one of the most scenic cricket stadia of the world.

By launching a full-scale investigative campaign against HPCA, how many branches and trees it has felled, how many extra rooms it has built, how many square feet of land it has encroached and why is it running a luxury hotel, you are only trivialising governance. You are not targeting the cricket body of the State where a BJP leader happens to be the president but an institution many Himachalis feel proud of irrespective of their party affiliation.  Instead of this cat and mouse game using Government power, why not contest the elections of the HPCA and become the president of the organisation by democratically removing Anurag Thakur. If Thakur has adopted Machiavellian tactics to become the HPCA president and has all tricks of the trade to retain the post, why now adopt a similar tactics to remove him from the position? Why are you targeting your political rival on the sly using your Government position and authority even though the Himachal High Court has given thumbs down to the Government when it took over the entire property of HPCA in a midnight action?

When Dhumal was the Chief Minister, he might have tried to target Singh. But most of his cases which have come in the limelight now pertain to central agencies — Income Tax irregularities, diary entries investigation by CBI and false affidavit by Election Commission. How can you blame Dhumal for all which you are facing now? Raja Sahib, you have been in politics for so long and in the last innings now, a magnanimous act and good governance could have given you a place in regional history. But you chose to look the other way round.

The action against HPCA was a clear cut case of vendetta politics. You wanted to take over an institution built brick by brick by another person forcibly. You wanted to snatch HPCA for yourself. The High Court saw the larger design and struck down the Government order. In fact, the serial vendetta politics started even before Virbhadra Singh formally took over as the Chief Minister with accusation of phone tapping. More than a year down the line and much hue and cry, nothing so far has emerged as to who tapped whose phone to benefit whom during the BJP regime.

Perhaps Virbhadra Singh forgot that the old style of politics which he has been practicing is a passé now and new players have ideas difficult to match. This is precisely what Anurag Thakur, also the president of the BJYM and his father Prem Kumar Dhumal did. They simply approached Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley and apprised him of the same set of irregularities which they had been raising at the State level for a while. Though the local media reported on the issues of favours to a power company, quid pro quo in terms of unsecured loans, not filing assets with the election affidavit, diary entries of giving money to him by a company etc, but when Jaitley raised it in New Delhi, the ramifications were far and wide.

Interestingly, all the so called deviations of the Himachal CM was there in public domain in a limited way but came into sharp focus only because of vendetta politics where he tried to pin the Dhumals — the old style of running Government — which is the only way Virbhadra Singh functions. Undoubtedly, he was the architect of the Congress victory in the Assembly polls and made the party victorious despite all odds but he should also remember that running a Government in 2014 is different from what it used to be in the 1980s. You cannot run a Government in 2014 with a mindset and politics practiced three decades ago. Things have changed dramatically and politics is no longer targeting your opponents, giving state largesse in terms of posts and red beacon lights to your family members and loyalists.

After Jaitley brought the acts of omission and commission of Virbhadra Singh in public domain afresh, now all focus has shifted to him in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections and he has become an example of the malaise besetting the political system. Everyday, some new revelation is being made about the Himachal CM, the latest how apples from his orchard were transported in two-wheelers, oil tankers and non-existent vehicles to an apple dealer in Parwanoo to earn crores from horticulture which is tax free.

The Prime Minister was asked what action was being taken against the Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister in a press conference, forcing him to reply that he is yet to study the charges. In any case, no one in the country expects the PM to take any action as it is in the domain of political leadership of the party headed by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. When Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi addresses a Press conference next, I am sure he too will be asked about Virbhadra Singh and whether he will be removed. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has already raised the bar and Rahul is trying to match it with his stand on issues of corruption like the Ordinance on jailed leaders and the Adarsh housing scam in Mumbai.

It seems Virbhadra would have to pass the Rahul test ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. The Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister may not have done any wrong and could well be within the broad contours of the legal framework. But then politics is now more about perception and obviously the perception about Singh is not what it should be as the bar has been raised higher, much higher now.

Senior Congress leaders in Delhi are arguing that in the new era politics, Virbhadra Singh is clearly emerging as a liability — more so, when Rahul Gandhi is set to be declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party after the announcement of retirement of Manmohan Singh.

In Himachal Pradesh, there are only four Lok Sabha seats and it has little impact nationally. But the message and perception which retaining Virbhadra Singh would give would harm the Congress is many seats across the country. Party leadership is weighing the pros and cons of retaining Raja Sahib with the final decision left on Rahul. Will the Congress vice-president take a stand similar to the one he took on the Lokpal Bill, Ordinance on jailed leaders and Adarsh Society or will he look the other way round? Perhaps only the Congress vice-president would answer that in his next presser.  (January 6, 2014) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2014-01-05-35880.html

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